論馬英九時期「活路外交」政策的推展及其成效

自1949年兩岸分治以來雙方一直都為爭取國際空間相互鬥爭，中共干預我國參與國際組織的行動從未停止過，自1971年進入聯合國以後就更容易箝制我國的外交空間，使得兩岸關係的好壞成了我國能否順利走向國際的重要影響因素，1979年與美國斷交後更出現斷交潮，自此我國的外交處境可以說是風雨飄搖非常艱難，歷任總統均運用不同的外交策略試圖讓國家脫離外交困境。2008年國民黨重新取得執政權，在國際現實環境之下，為了擴大我國國際空間，身為中華民國的總統的馬英九改變了過去的外交策略，兩岸勢必得要建立起良性的互動，臺灣才會有寬廣的國際外交空間。馬英九總統於2008年5月20日發表中華民國第十二任總統就職演說，揭示未來台灣在外交事務方面採取的是「和解休兵」與進行「活路外交」的政策。台灣倡議「外交休兵」，不僅牽涉大陸如何看待的問題，亦涉及亞太周邊國家如何看待兩岸發展會否影響到其國家利益的問題。然而，在馬英九政府全力推展相關的外交政策模式的同時，卻也面臨一個傳統的「囚徒困境」，主要包括：台灣內部複雜而敏感的族群政治、確保國家安全所必需的對美軍購與進行兩岸和解休兵之間的矛盾，以及馬英九民調聲望下滑所可能導致的政策負面衝擊等。本研究以馬英九總統任內的活路外交政策為研究核心，探討現馬政府利用「九二共識」作為兩岸交流的基礎。研究結果指出，馬英九總統在逐漸緩和兩岸緊張關係的同時，也為我國爭取到更廣闊的外交空間。另外，儘管中共對我國外交活動仍多有干涉，但由於馬政府積極改善兩岸關係、建立我國良好外交形象，讓許多國家願意加深與我國的實質交流，並支持我國參與國際組織。最後，研究者也根據撰寫當下的兩岸與全球正面臨的新冠肺炎疫情與美中貿易戰遺緒的現況，提出相關的政策實務建議。

關鍵字

馬英九總統；活路外交；外交休兵；九二共識

並列摘要

Since the division of the two sides of the Strait in 1949, the two sides have been fighting each other for international space. The CCP has never stopped interfering with my country’s participation in international organizations. Since entering the United Nations in 1971, it has become easier to clamp down on my country’s diplomatic space and make cross-strait relations better. Badness has become an important factor affecting whether my country can smoothly move towards the world. After the severance of diplomatic relations with the United States in 1979, my country’s diplomatic situation can be said to have been precarious and difficult. Successive presidents have used different diplomatic strategies to try to get the country out of the country. Diplomatic dilemma. In 2008, the KMT regained power. In order to expand my country's international space under the current international environment, Ma Ying-jeou, the president of the Republic of China, changed his diplomatic strategy in the past, and the two sides of the strait must establish a benign interaction. Only Taiwan will have a broad space for international diplomacy. President Ma Ying-jeou delivered the inaugural speech of the twelfth president of the Republic of China on May 20, 2008, revealing that Taiwan will adopt a policy of "reconciliation and truce" and "departure diplomacy" in foreign affairs in the future. Taiwan's proposal for a "diplomatic truce" not only involves the question of how the mainland views it, but also how the Asia-Pacific neighboring countries view whether cross-strait development will affect their national interests. However, while the Ma Ying-jeou administration is fully promoting related foreign policy models, it is also facing a traditional "prisoner’s dilemma", which mainly includes: Taiwan’s internal complex and sensitive ethnic politics, and the US military purchases and cross-strait transactions necessary to ensure national security. The contradiction between the reconciliation and the truce, and the possible negative impact on the policy caused by the decline of Ma Ying-jeou's reputation in the polls. This study focuses on the foreign policy of free paths during the presidency of Ma Ying-jeou, and explores the use of the "1992 Consensus" by the current Malaysian government as the basis for cross-strait exchanges. The research results point out that while President Ma Ying-jeou has gradually eased the tension between the two sides of the strait, he has also won a broader diplomatic space for my country. In addition, although the CCP still interferes in my country's diplomatic activities, the Malaysian government is actively improving cross-strait relations and establishing my country's good diplomatic image. Many countries are willing to deepen substantial exchanges with my country and support my country's participation in international organizations. Finally, the researchers also put forward relevant policy and practical recommendations based on the current situation of the new crown pneumonia epidemic that the two sides of the strait and the world are facing and the legacy of the US-China trade war.