長壽風險與風險態度對家計單位消費及投資決策之影響

The impact of longevity risk and risk attitude on investment and consumption decisions of households

陳柏銘(Po-Ming Chen)

指導教授 ： 田峻吉

淡江大學/商學院/保險學系保險經營碩士班/碩士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2010.00207

摘要

人們的平均餘命隨著時間推移逐漸延長，家計單位於有限財富下的消費支出與其資產配置勢必受到影響。因此，本研究透過實驗經濟學之方式， 使家計單位模擬其一生可能的消費與資產配置，以瞭解長壽風險對於家計單位之行為決策是否產生影響。
本研究將問卷中的工作收入、淨資產以及預期壽命與實驗中之決策相互結合。在消費決策方面，家計單位依照預期的消費支出進行決策；在投資決策方面，家計單位則依照各時期扣除消費之財富進行存款與股票之配置。第一次實驗是以推估預期壽命作為家計單位之實驗期數，第二次實驗是以推估預期壽命加0至2期作為家計單位之實驗期數，透過二次的實驗，研究不同風險態度的家計單位於進行消費與投資決策時，是否會受到長壽風險所影響。
實證結果顯示，(1)教育程度和淨資產與絕對風險趨避係數呈反向關係；淨資產和工作收入與相對風險趨避係數呈正向關係。(2)消費決策方面，無論是否考量長壽風險，越傾向風險趨避之家計單位有較低的消費比例；投資決策方面，於考量長壽風險下退休後則將持有較高比例的無風險性資產與較低比例的風險性資產。(3)若家計單位為女性、教育程度高、子女數多、預期壽命低與風險趨避傾向者在面臨長壽風險時，會以增加無風險性資產降低風險性資產之方式來降低長壽風險所帶來之衝擊。

關鍵字

實驗經濟學 ； 長壽風險 ； 風險態度 ； 絕對風險趨避 ； 相對風險趨避 ； 無風險性資產 ； 風險性資產

並列摘要

This research designs a simulation of household’s lifetime consumption and asset allocation, combine the income, net assets and life expectancy with the decision-making of experiment from questionnaire by experimental economists. Through two experiments to research different risk attitude of the households in consumption and investment decisions weather affect by the longevity risk.
The empirical results show that (1) education level and net assets as inversely related to the absolute risk aversion; but net assets and income as positive related to the relative risk aversion. (2)In consumption decision-making, whether or not consideration longevity risk, the household tend to more risk averse have less consumption ratio; and in the investment decisions, consider the longevity risk in retirement will be held higher proportion of risk-free assets and lower proportion of risky assets. (3) If the household organization are female, highly education level, more children, low life expectancy and tend to risk aversion, when above face the longevity risk, they will increase the risk-free assets and reduce the risk of assets to decrease the impact of longevity risk.

並列關鍵字

Experimental economists ； Longevity risk ； Risk attitude ； Absolute risk aversion ； Relative risk aversion ； Risk-free assets ； Risk of assets

參考文獻

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