- 學位論文
影響東南亞五國經濟成長因素之研究-以亞洲金融風暴後十二年為例
The Factors Influencing Economic growth in five countries of Southeast Asian: After 1997 Asian Financial Crisis as 12 years.
摘要
亞洲金融風暴發生，東南亞五國人均GDP越高國家重創幅度越大，起步較晚的越南受創程度較其他東南亞四國來得小。因此，本研究希望瞭解究竟什麼因素是影響東南亞五國經濟成長的因素，透過Panel Data的連續性長時間的測度，來探討各國影響其經濟成長的驅動因子。 本研究利用Panel Data分析解釋變項對被解釋變項影響程度；先透過統計軟體Minitab及SPSS12.0圖表製成來檢視解釋變數與被解釋變數的趨勢變化，透過歸納分析東南亞五國變項對其經濟成長的走勢關係；透過統計軟體Eviews 6.0來實證東南亞五國十二年之間影響經濟成長之變項。 研究發現，不論是國際金融層面、政府治理層面、產業結構層面，還是人力資本層面，層面底下的解釋變數，都可能是影響東南亞國經濟成長的因素，且各國顯著性影響變數皆不盡相同；過去研究只偏重於單一層面變數探討該國經濟成長，因此本研究以亞洲金融風暴後東南亞區域，透過全球化理論、全球治理理論、經濟成長理論所延伸的變項進行分析；由於過去實證方法皆以透過單一層面解釋變數進行測度，若只考量單一層面解釋變項進行分析並不完全。 其次，在亞洲金融風暴十二年，國外直接投資對經濟成長影響性，只有泰國為顯著性影響；貿易淨流量部份印尼及馬來西亞，對經濟成長為顯著性影響；貪腐部份，泰國及馬來西亞對經濟成長為顯著性影響；農業生產力部份，印尼、馬來西亞、越南對其經濟成長為顯著性影響；製造業生產力部份，馬來西亞、泰國對其經濟成長為顯著性影響；農業生產力印尼、馬來西亞、越南對其經濟成長為顯著性影響；失業率部份泰國、菲律賓、馬來西亞對其經濟成長為顯著性影響；教育支出占總支出比例，不影響東南亞五國經濟成長。 本研究結論認為亞洲金融風暴後十二年，泰國政府放寬投資法案，使國外直接投資對於經濟成長有明顯影響，尤其是2004年後兩者變動。印尼天然性能源豐富，使其貿易順差支撐亞洲金融風暴經濟成長；馬來西亞受國家工業政策影響，使電子商品及製造業商品帶動整體貿易出口提升。馬來西亞因Anwar事件和泰國總理大選弊陋，使得兩國政府的不穩定。東南亞五國中馬來西亞及泰國的國家政策，使這兩國製造業生產力有效成長，帶動國家經濟成長。印尼及越南本身農業出口大國，因此農業生產力對國家經濟成長是有影響；馬來西亞在2000年後，農業部門發展成為重點目標，間接提升國家農業出口項目，帶動國家經濟成長。失業一直是菲律賓重要問題，對經濟成長影響仍延續至亞洲金融風暴後；馬來西亞透過人力發展基金， 提升整體就業表現，影響國家經濟的成長。
並列摘要
In the past, the five Southeast Asian countries's GDP per capita were increasing. It would be slide down, when the Asian financial crisis happening. Vietnam’s development level is later than other four countries in Southeast Asia which is loss less than others. We want to know what factors affect the growth of the five countries in Southeast Asia, through using Panel Data to measure the continuity information what is the countries of the driving factors causes economic growth. This Study uses Panel Data analyzing independent variables that what affects for dependent variables. Through the statistical software Minitab and SPSS12.0 to make the chart and examine the different between independent variables and dependent variables. Through Inductive analysis analyzes variable relationship between economic growth trends of five countries in Southeast Asia. Through statistical software Eviews6.0 to examine five countries of Southeast Asia what variable affects economic growth between 12 years. The study result regardless of the international financial aspect, the governance aspect, the industrial structure aspect, or the human capital aspect. The aspect's dependent variables may affect the Southeast Asian economic growth of factors. Every Countries's significant variables are different, the past research emphasis on one aspect, only variables of the country's economic growth. This study is research Southeast Asia region after Asian financial crisis, through the theory of globalization, global governance theory and economic growth theory to analyze variables. In the past, they were also through a single aspect's independent variable to measure. If it only considered a single aspect's independent variables to analysis that were not complete. Second, this study found that during the Asian financial crisis years, foreign direct investment affect economic growth that is only a significant impact in Thailand. Trade net flow affects the economic growth significant in Indonesia and Malaysia. In corruption, Thailand and Malaysia are significant impact on economic growth. In agricultural productivity, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam are significant impact on economic growth. In manufacturing productivity, economic growth is significant impact on Malaysia and Thailand. In agricultural productivity, economic growth is significant impact on Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam. Unemployment rate is significant impact on economic growth in Thailand, Philippines and Malaysia. The education expenditure on total expenditure proportion had no affect on economic growth in the five countries of Southeast Asia. The study concludes, after the Asian financial crisis 12 years, the Thai government loose the Investment Act, the foreign direct investment has been significantly affected economic growth, especially they were changed after 2004. In Indonesia, natural sources of energy is plentiful, the trade surplus supports economic growth in the Asian financial crisis; Malaysia is affected the state industrial policy, making the electronics and manufacturing industries lead the overall export goods increased. Malaysia is due to Anwar events and Thai Prime Minister Election fraud, makes this two governments instability. Five countries in Southeast Asia, Malaysia and Thailand in the national policy make the effective growth in manufacturing productivity between the two countries, promote national economic growth. Indonesia and Vietnam were major exporter of agriculture; agricultural productivity is the impact on national economic growth. In 2000, Malaysia's agricultural sector became the major targets, indirect increasing national agricultural export item, drove national economic growth. The Philippines has been the serious issue of unemployment, impact on economic growth still continued to the Asian financial crisis; Malaysia enhances the overall employment performance through the Human Development Fund affecting national economic growth.