摘 要 自2000年起,美國國防部每年均定期公布「中國軍力報告」迄今2009年,引發各界對中共軍事力量的未來發展的疑慮,中共深知世人的疑慮,乃有所謂的「和平崛起」、論點提出,且積極採取「睦鄰外交」政策,來消除世人對「中國威脅論」的疑懼。事實上,從「新軍事變革」角度發現,解放軍進幾年不論在現代化軍事思想、軍隊本質、裝備建置等方面取得歷史性成就,尤其是目前正組建中的航空母艦,也顯示具有「中國特色」的「新軍事變革」加速推進,對打贏「一體化聯合作戰」及「信息條件下的高科技局部戰爭」提供必備條件。 中共「十七大」確立胡錦濤在黨內的歷史地位,及擘畫未來五至十年的發展總路線。從「十七大」的報告分析,可預判其在對臺工作方針及政策指導,將更具彈性、靈活及務實。在其「現代化」具有「中國特色」的「新軍事變革」發展下,將對台灣國家安全、國人自我防衛之決心與軍事戰力組建與部署,產生更嚴峻的挑戰。
Abstract Since 2000, the US Defense Department has released annually an “Annual Report to Congress on Military Power of the People's Republic of China.” The report arouses growing skepticism about the future development of Chinese military buildup. China in response to such global suspicion namely the “threat of arising China” argues that the growth of the Chinese military, such as its ever-increasing military expenditure, corresponds with its economic growth and that the growth of Chinese national power is a “peaceful rise” and that the foreign policy China pursuits is the so-call “good-neighbor diplomacy. From the perspective of “revolution of military affairs.” the fact is that Chinese People’s Liberation Armyhas reached historical achievements in modernizing military thought, renewing military structure, and upgrading military equipments. The building of aircraft carrier demonstrates the acceleration of the revolution of military affairs with Chinese characteristics; and provides the necessary military muscles in wining the “integrated joint operations”in the Local wars under the conditions of high-tech and informationization. The Chinese Communist Party’s 17th national congress affirmeds the historical status of Hu Jingtao within the Party and introducing Hu’s future policy orientations valid for the next five to ten years. Analyzing from the documents released from the Party congress, it is assumable that Chinese policy guidelines in handling the cross-straits relations and affairs are likely to follow an even more flexible pragmatism. China’s modernization and revolution in military affairs with Chinese characteristics are likely to pose even more serious challenge to the Republic of China in its national security, civil determination of self-defense and future military organizational restructuring, buildup and deployment.