學生t分配模型下之加速破壞衰變試驗

Accelerated Destructive Degradation Test Model based on Student's t-distribution

古橋田皓程(Tien-Hao-Cheng Kuchiao)

指導教授 ： 蔡志群

淡江大學/理學院/數學學系數學與數據科學碩士班/碩士(2020年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2020.00248

摘要

加速衰變試驗 (accelerated degradation test, ADT) 為測量產品之品質特徵值 (quality characteristic, QC) 隨著時間衰變，監控產品衰變的實驗方式，以精確提供產品可靠度訊息。有些高可靠度產品需利用破壞性的方式，量測其產品之衰退程度，如測量黏著劑強度的拉斷力量測試，此時導致每個測試樣品，僅只會得到一次的品質特徵值，對於如此的試驗，稱為加速破壞衰變測試 (accelerated destructive degradation test, ADDT)。本文以聚合物材料為動機例子，針對學生t分配 (student’s t-distribution) 建構ADDT衰變模型，並探討產品壽命的相關資訊。結果顯示，以此衰變模型推估產品壽命更為精準，且模擬分析結果得知，模擬結果與漸近理論結果是相近的，而從模型的誤判結果得知，當ADDT衰變模型是來自學生t分配時，誤判成常態分配ADDT衰變模型時，誤判對於產品壽命推估所造成影響是巨大的。

關鍵字

加速破壞衰變測試 ； 學生t分配

並列摘要

Accelerated destructive degradation test (ADDT) that only one quality characteristic can be taken on each test unit during measurements is useful and effective to provide the reliability information of the products to the customers. Motivated by a polymer data, an ADDT model with student's-t distribution was constructed. The results showed that the proposed model has better accuracy and precision on the lifetime of this polymer material than normal ADDT model. It is known from the simulation analysis that the simulation results are similar to the theoretical ones. In addition, the effect of model misspecification on the products’ lifetime is significant.

並列關鍵字

Accelerated Destructive Degradation Test ； Student’s-t distribution

參考文獻

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