已發展國家之經濟不確定性對生育的影響

The impact of economic uncertainty on fertility in developed countries

葉倖君(Hsing-Chun Yeh)

指導教授 ： 胡登淵

淡江大學/商管學院/產業經濟學系碩士班/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2014.00288

摘要

隨著經濟發展的腳步和社會的變遷，「少子化」現象也越來越明顯，生育率逐漸下降是幾乎全球各國皆須要面臨的問題，其中導致生育率下降原因之一經濟不確定性很有可能使得年輕夫婦因預期預算緊縮而導致延後生育或決定少生，應為決定是否生育的重要因素，惟文獻中少有討論。有鑒於此，本文針對20國OECD已發展國家探討經濟不確定性對於生育之影響，樣本取自1991年起至2012年共22年的追蹤資料(Panel Data)，使用靜態模型以及動態模型分析公債、女性失業率、女性勞動市場參與率、實質人均GDP成長率、公共支出的家庭福利、全球科技網路泡沫化和金融危機等對於生育之影響。首先，使用靜態模型估計分析，透過Hausman Test檢定採用隨機效果模型，發現經濟不確定和生育呈現反向關係，公債和女性失業率的增加以及全球網路科技泡沫化時期皆會使得生育下降；但實質人均GDP的增加，亦使生育率下降。然而，生育決策常受前期生育決策影響，本研究進而使用動態追蹤資料模型 (Dynamic Panel Data Model)估計分析，採用Arellano及Bond (1991)GMM兩階段模型，探討前期的經濟變數及決策是否會影響後期的生育決策。而從動態模型結果發現前期的生育率、女性失業率、實質人均GDP以及全球科技網路泡沫化和金融危機皆會影響當時的生育決策，當前期女性失業率和前期實質人均GDP增加，會使生育率下降，且由金融危機和全球科技網路泡沫化網路泡沫化的虛擬變數可看出此段期間會使生育率下降。故本文從靜態模型與動態模型分析皆發現經濟不確定性對於已發展國家之生育率會造成負向衝擊。尤其當使用動態模型時，這負向衝擊又更明確，全球科技網路泡沫化和金融危機使生育率下降，分別使生育年齡婦女減少約0.02個及0.03個小孩。

關鍵字

生育率 ； 經濟不確定性 ； 動態追蹤資料模型

並列摘要

In this paper, we explore the relation between fertility and economic uncertainty by examing a panel of OECD 20 countries aggregate fertility and economic variables reflecting economic uncertainty from 1991 to 2012. First, we focus on static panel data analysis by using fixed-effects model and random-effects model to study how different the economic shocks may have affected fertility. The random-effects model is chosen according the Hausman test. Second, we estimate dynamic panel data of two-step GMM estimators from Arellano and Bond (1991) to investigate how different the lagged fertility rate and the economic conditions of lagged independent variables may have affected fertility decisions. By using these two methods, we find that the economic uncertainty variables including female unemployment rate and the periods of dotcom and finance crisis are associated with lower fertility. The estimates of coefficient of real per capita GDP growth rate are significantly negative in both models. In dynamic model, we find female participation rate and spending on family benefits have a significantly positive relationship with fertility in random-effects model. While female participation rate is still significantly positive, the estimates of coefficient of family benefits and public debt become insignificant. Overall, the findings from both models indicate that the impact of economic uncertainty on fertility rate is significantly negative in developed countries. Women seem to postpone or reduce childbearing in response to downturns. The negative impact is more significant in dynamic panel model. During the recession periods of dotcom and finance crisis, fertility rate decreases 0.02 and 0.03 children for the women aged from 15 to 49.

並列關鍵字

fertility ； economic uncertainty ； dynamic panel data model

參考文獻

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