摘要
本研究探討影響台灣公路油品需求之因素。利用縱橫資料分析方法，分別採用成彈性分析和成長率分析兩種型式，以2000年3月至2007年12月間之資料，討論影響台灣23個縣市汽、柴油之因素。 彈性分析結果顯示，多數變數對汽油需求函數和柴油需求函數，都有顯著的解釋效果。人均所得越高，汽柴油銷售量越高；價格越高，汽柴油銷售量越低；人均小客車數量越高，汽油銷售量越高，人均大客車數量越高，汽油銷售量越低，人均大貨車數量或大客車數量越高，柴油銷售量越高；製造業生產指數越高，柴油銷售量越高。而加入季節性變數時，對汽柴油需求都有顯著的影響，冬天汽油銷售量明顯較少，柴油銷售量明顯較多。再者，以成長率分析時，只有汽油價格、小客車數量和人均大客車數量對汽油需求函數有顯著效果。價格變動率上漲，汽油銷售量成長率增加；人均小客車數量成長率增加，汽油銷售量成長率增加；人均大客車數量成長率增加，則汽油需求成長率會減少。而柴油需求方面，則有多個變數有顯著的解釋效果。人均所得成長率增加，柴油銷售量成長率增加；價格變動率上漲，柴油銷售量成長率增加；大貨車數量成長率增加，柴油銷售量成長率增加；大客車數量成長率增加，柴油銷售量成長率減少。而第一季的季節性因素只對柴油銷售量成長率有顯著的負向影響。 本研究結果隱含二大政策建議。第一，實證結果發現台灣地區小客車與機車有顯著的交叉效果。當小客車數量增加時，對汽油銷售量的影響會因為機車數量的增加而減少。因此政府能源政策若能強化電動機車的補貼，進而增加民眾多擁有電動機車的誘因，則於高油價時，民眾將會傾向選擇以機車替代小客車而達到控制汽油消費量之目的，並可大量減少碳排放。第二，研究結果指出，當大客車數量增加時，可使汽油銷售量減少，顯示政府發展大眾運輸時，將有助於減少汽油的需求。其中大眾運輸包括大客車、捷運和高速鐵路等。
並列摘要
This study investigates the demand of road petroleum including gasoline and diesel in Taiwan by using the panel data with 2 cities and 21 counties during the period of March, 2000 to December, 2007. We found some results by implementing elasticity analysis. Most variables have significant impacts on gasoline demand and diesel demand. The sale volume of gasoline increases as the increase of personal disposable income (PDI) and quantity of car. The sale volume of gasoline decreases as the increase of gasoline price, interaction of quantity of car and motorcycle and quantity of bus. Besides, the sale volume of diesel increases as the increase of PDI, quantity of truck and bus and index of production-manufacturing (INPM). The sale volume of diesel decreases as the increase of diesel price. Moreover, seasonal variables have significant impacts on both gasoline demand and diesel demand. In winter, the sale volume of gasoline is the least, and the sale volume of diesel is the most. Furthermore, the growth rate analysis also brings us some interesting outcomes. The growth rate of sale volume of gasoline increases as the increases of quantity of car. The growth rate of sale volume of gasoline decreases as the increase of gasoline price and the increase of quantity of bus. Besides, there are several variables have significant impacts on diesel. The growth rate of sale volume of diesel increases as the increase of PDI, INPM and quantity of truck. The growth rate of sale volume of diesel decreases as the increase of diesel price and quantity of bus. There are only season 1 has significant negative impact on the growth rate of sale volume of diesel. According to above conclusion, two policy implications are derived. First, since the impact of car on the gasoline demand is offset by motorcycle, the government should provide more subsidy for motorcycle in order to reduce the gasoline demand and gas emission. Second, the government can develop public transportation to reduce the demand of gasoline. Public transportation including buses, mass rapid transit and high speed rail, etc.