習近平主政下中共對臺政策之研究

以中共的立場來看，無論是從戰略角度、經濟利益、以及民族情感來看，中共當局都是絕對不會放棄統一臺灣的，只是站在不同的時間、不同的國際局勢、以及不同的決策者的個人風格，又都將導致中共對臺政策的不同。本文旨意在分析習近平中共「十八大」上台以來的對臺政策以及國際局勢、中共內部、兩岸因素還有習近平個人因素對習近平的對臺政策影響為何。筆者通過研究主要發現主要有二：第一，習近平上台以來對臺政策的轉折點便是2014年的「太陽花學運」，在此之前習近平的對臺政策主要以「以經促統」的懷柔手段居多，而在「太陽花」學運之後，習近平則是擴大對臺灣青年以及基層群眾的「促統」手段基礎上加大了對「反獨」力道；第二，在影響習近平的對臺政策當中，國際局勢以及習近平個人因素會使習近平對臺政策較為彈性，而中共內部以及兩岸因素則是是習近平對臺政策變強硬的關鍵因素。

關鍵字

習近平；對臺政策；太陽花學運；層次分析；政策轉變

並列摘要

From the perspective of the Chinese Communist Party, they will never give up unification with Taiwan because of strategic concerns, economic interests and the sense of nationalism. However, Beijing’s policy towards Taiwan varies due to the different ruling styles of decision makers, circumstances at certain time periods and international situation. In this regard, this thesis aims to analyze Xi Jinping’s Taiwan policy since the 18th Party Congress in 2012, thereby discussing how Xi’s personal factor, China’s domestic situation, Cross-Taiwan Strait and international situation influence Xi’s policy towards Taiwan. This thesis has two major findings. First, prior to the Sunflower Movement in 2014, Xi tried to achieve unification with Taiwan mainly using economic tactics—which can be regarded as a ‘conciliation policy’ to Taiwan. After the Sunflower Movement, Taiwanese youth and citizens became the main audiences for promoting a ‘quick unification,’ thereby pushing more support for anti-independence of Taiwan. Second, both Xi’s personal factor and international situation have led to a moderate policy to Taiwan, whereas China’s domestic factor and the Cross-Taiwan Strait relations are the primary reasons for Xi to be tough towards Taiwan.