蘋果公司股價與台灣蘋果供應商股價之共整合分析-以電子、電零與光電產業為例

本研究主要探討蘋果公司股價與台灣電子、電子零組件與光電產業的蘋果供應商股價之共整合關係，分析期間為1988年12月19日至2019年03月20日。本文先使用單根檢定確認變數之整合階次，再透過自我迴歸遞延分配模型（ARDLＭ）進行邊界檢定。實證結果顯示，若以逐年方式檢視，2015至2017年蘋果股價與電源供應大廠台達電股價存在負向共整合關係。然而，若以歷代iPhone籌備至發表期間進行分析，蘋果股價則被證實在2017年以前的確能帶動新日興、臻鼎-KY、台達電與良維等4間生產電子零組件的公司股價上漲，而鴻海也獲得正向的長期影響，2017年後其與台達電和鴻海股價之連動關係轉為負向。從上述結果可以得知，過去十年內，電子、電零與光電產業蘋果概念股與蘋果股價之間的共整合關係逐漸由正轉負甚至消失。

關鍵字

蘋果公司股價；台灣蘋果概念股；共整合分析；自我迴歸遞延分配模型

並列摘要

This study explores the co-integration relationship between Apple's stock price and the stock prices of Apple's suppliers in Taiwan's electronics, electronic components and optoelectronic industries. The study period is from December 19, 1988 to March 20, 2019. This article first uses unit root tests to confirm the order of integration of the variables, and then uses the ARDL model to perform bounds test. The empirical results show that, if viewed year by year, there is a negative co-integration relationship between Apple's stock price and the stock price of power supply manufacturer DELTA from 2015 to 2017. However, if the analysis is carried out from the preparation period to the release date of the historical versions of iPhone, Apple's stock price has been confirmed to have a positive relationship with the stock prices of four electronic component companies: SZS, ZDT, DELTA, LONGWELL, and HON HAI. After 2017, its long-term relationship with stock price of DELTA and HON HA turned negative. From the above results, we can see that in the past ten years, the co-integration relationship between Apple concept stocks in the electronics, electronic components and optoelectronic industries and Apple stock price has gradually changed from positive to negative or even disappeared.