- 學位論文
人民幣國際化趨勢下的衍生性金融商品創新
The Renminbi Internationalization and It’s Derivative Products in China
摘要
中國是一個擁有13億人口，GDP仍可以維持每年9%以上增長的大國，又目前中國使用的貨幣-人民幣，正被鼓吹著成為國際貨幣。因此在本研究中，試想了解人民幣國際化趨勢下，中國今日的衍生性金融商品發展情況如何。 本次研究中，將舉出中國境內與境外各兩項較為廣泛使用的衍生性金融商品做為研究，並透過資料的收集，期待能完成以下研究目的： 一、 從匯率改革至今，人民幣國際化如何進行？ 二、 中國境內店頭市場，是否存在著些許問題，使交易情況不理想？ 三、 現今中國境外人民幣相關衍生性金融商品，其交易情況是否會 對中國產生不良的影響？ 四、 金融創新出的商品該選擇在哪一地區進行試點交易，該如何提升交易所水準以及過時的監管制度與法律該如何進行改善？ 從上述四點研究目的為基礎，透過本次研究，獲得下列四項研究心得： 一、 先奠定在亞洲區經濟實力：利用香港地理位置、歷史背景與金融環境三大優勢，擴大人民幣流通量。同時穩定中國在亞洲區的經濟實力，讓人民幣可以在亞洲區流通。 二、 中國境內店頭市場與集中市場並存發展：兩種市場並存發展，讓交易者可以有更多種投資組合可以選擇，以便滿足他們的需求。 三、 過於擔憂人民幣自由兌換後的影響：在逐漸放寬管的過程中，難免會擔心匯率被操縱的問題，但從過往至今，上未有證據可以舉出，經濟大國有能力操縱其他國家匯率。且中國經濟實力深厚，若要操控，也並非一件容易之事情。 四、 可安排參與跨國市場交易平台：目前東協十國有六國正在建設亞洲區跨國交易平台，中國可先提升自身交易所水平，再申請進入。最後香港交易所在4/19將推行人民幣期貨試點交易，預計在第三季就會上市，可以看出中國也認同利用香港進行試點。
並列摘要
China, a country that has 1.3 billion people but GDP could still increase at least 9% per year. Chinese currency Renminbi has its potential to become a global currency. Therefore, this study tries to understand how China’s derivatives will develop under the internationalization of Renminbi. This study highlights two domestic and two foreign derivatives from China. Through data collection, it looks forward to achieve the following research: 1. How would the RMB exchange rate react to progress in the future after the reformation? 2. Does the OTC of China have difficulties in trading? 3. Would foreign derivatives transactions impact China’s derivatives? 4. Which region should the latest derivative been tested? How would the exchange center promote its service quality and improve the regulatory regime? According to the above, this study indicates the following four points. 1. Stabilize the economic strength in Asia：Make use of Hong Kong’s three superiority: geographical location, historical background and financial environment to increase RMB liquidity. The stabilized economic strength could also increase circulation of RMB in Asia. 2. Coexistence of OTC and Listed Market development: Two markets should coexist and develop respectively to increase the portfolio options for traders to choose. 3. Overreact about the impact on free convertibility of RMB: Exchange rate manipulation problems may be concerned inevitability due to the gradual deregulation. However, no evidence has shown that economic giants have the ability to manipulate the exchange rate of other countries. Besides, it is not likely to control a country like China which has a strong economic potential. 4. Participate in cross-market trading platform: There are six ASEAN countries building a platform for cross border trading in Asia. China can now improve its exchange level and apply for membership in the future. On 19th April, Hong Kong Stock Exchanges will implement the pilot program of RMB futures products, and also expected to launch in the third quarter. This may prove that China also agreed to regard Hong Kong as an important economic region.