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  • 學位論文

歐債危機後與量化寬鬆後之西班牙產業結構與失業率之評估

Assessment of Spanish Industrial Structure and Unemployment Rate after the European Debt Crisis and Quantitative Easing

指導教授 : 鮑世亨

摘要


本論文主要探討西班牙在2008年金融海嘯與2009年發生主權債務危機後,國內金融業受房地產泡沫拖累,為因為金融業資金流動性,緊急採取財政政策造成財政赤字快速飆高;而對外國家信用評等受到希臘危機影響遭信評機構嚴格檢視並調降,使得公債殖利率攀高增加了發債成本。西班牙政府為能解決國內經濟衰退及長期產業結構問題,在歐洲央行與歐洲共同基金的援助下,進行撙節措施與經濟、產業和勞動面的改革,目的在於縮減財政赤字,改善國內經濟體質,讓西班牙經濟再度回到穩定成長的軌道。 著眼於美國受惠量化寬鬆貨幣政策,國內經濟自2012年底開始復甦,失業率至2014年底時已降至5.6%,相對於歐洲經濟卻仍維持在低經濟成長與高失業率的環境中,由於長期間的經濟低迷,使得整體歐洲的通貨膨脹率持續萎縮,歐洲央行為避免整個歐洲市場走向日本經濟的翻版,決議在2015年3月起仿效美國全面執行量化寬鬆,以挽救不斷萎縮的消費市場。由於執行期間過短,本論文僅以官方提供相關經濟數據估計值做評估歐版量貨寬鬆的效益。

並列摘要


This paper mainly discusses that Spanish adopted fiscal policy urgently because the domestic financial industry was affected by real estate bubble and financial liquidity after the financial tsunami in 2008 and the sovereign debt crisis in 2009, which caused the deficit to soar quickly; the sovereign rating was inspected strictly and deducted by Credit Rating Agency because of the impact of the Greek crisis, which made government bonds yield higher and increase the cost of issuing bond. In order to solve the problems of domestic economic recession and long-term industrial structure, with the assistance of the European central bank and the European Common Fund, the Spanish government carried out austerity measurement and economic, industrial and laboring reformation, the purpose of which is to reduce the fiscal deficit, to improve domestic economic health, and to make the Spanish economy return to a track of steady growth. Focusing on America who gained benefit from quantitative easing monetary policy, its domestic economy has been recovered since the end of 2012, and its unemployment rate had fallen to 5.6% by the end of 2014. While that remained to be in a low economic growth and high unemployment rate environment compared with the European economy. Due to long-term economic downturn, the overall inflation continued to be contracted in Europe. In case the whole European market went towards the republication of Japanese economy, the European central bank decided to start the comprehensive implementation of quantitative easing since March 2015, imitating the USA, to save the shrinking consumer market. Because execution period is too short, this paper only uses the relevant official economic data to estimate the benefits of European quantitative easing.

參考文獻


邱俊榮, 2006, 台韓經濟發展消長比較分析
William Chislet , 2010, The Way Forward for the Spanish Economy:
More Internationalisation (WP)
OECD,2012, European Union 2012
European Commission, 2015, Quarterly Report on the Euro Area

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