救護需求預測與多目標救護車配置

EMS Demand Forecast and Multi-Objective Ambulance Allocation

李岳陞(Yue-Sheng Li)

指導教授 ： 林慧珍

淡江大學/工學院/資訊工程學系博士班/博士(2018年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2018.00461

摘要

本論文研究救護車之最佳動態區位配置，在需求點全被涵蓋之基本要求下，使得所有需求點獲得最公平救護資源，以達到需求越密集的區域所得到的救護資源相對越多之目標。本研究分成兩大部份：一、預測緊急救護需求量分布，二、建立救護車區位配置模型，根據預測需求量，求出最佳區位配置。對某個時段需求量預測，本研究採用前幾周與前一年同個日期的前後幾周內同個時段的已知需求量，求出平滑平均需求 (smoothed average demand) 來做預測，並同時考慮時段內單位小時的最大需求量，來解決同時間內可能有些區域有較密集的需求量，而需要較多的救護支援之問題。在救護車之動態區位配置，採用一個有效的最適化演算法JPSO (Jumping Particle Swarm Optimization)，求得最佳區位配置。在實驗測試部分，利用新北市消防局提供的2015年救護需求歷史資料，來預測2016年度的救護需求量並求得救護車配置，再與官方現行的救護車配置比較需求之涵蓋率。本研究也將求出的救護車配置對歷史案件做模擬派遣，求得派遣救護車與案件現場的距離，稱之為反應距離，再與官方配置下派遣的救護車之反應距離作比較。

關鍵字

需求量預測 ； 緊急救護服務 ； 四元樹分割 ； 粒子群最佳化 ； 救護車區位模型

並列摘要

This study considers the two-fold dynamic ambulance allocation problem, which includes forecasting the distribution of Emergency Medical Service (EMS) requesters and allocating ambulances dynamically according to the predicted distribution of requesters. EMS demand distribution forecasting is based on on-record historical demands. A multi-objective ambulance allocation model (MOAAM) is then solved by a so-called Jumping Particle Swarm Optimization (JPSO) mechanism according to the forecasted distribution of demands. Experiments were conducted using the recorded historical data for Emergency Medical Service requesters in Banqiao district of New Taipei City, Taiwan, for the years 2015 and 2016. Emergency Medical Services demand distribution for 2016 is forecasted according to the on-record historical demand of 2015. Ambulance allocation for 2016 is then determined based on the forecasted demand distribution. The proposed allocation strategy is compared with the official strategy, in terms of the demand coverage rates of the real demand distribution. A so-called response distance, defined as the distance between the allocation site of the dispatched ambulance and the EMS scene, is used to evaluate and compare the efficiency of the strategies based on different allocations. The experimental results show that the proposed allocation method provides higher demand coverage rates and shorter response distances than the official allocation.

並列關鍵字

Demand forecast ； Emergency Medical Services ； Qradtree Decomposition ； Particle Swarm Optimization ； ambulance allocation model

參考文獻

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