從兩岸總體經濟環境探討上海市與台北市辦公市場租金影響之實證分析

The Empirical Analysis on Cross-strait Economic Environment to influence Shanghai city and Taipei city Office Market Rents

王信達(Hsin-Da Wang)

指導教授 ： 莊孟翰

淡江大學/國際研究學院/中國大陸研究所碩士班/碩士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2010.00431

摘要

在2007美國爆發金融風暴之後，進一步導致全球金融海嘯的發生，使世界各國的經濟環境都受到嚴重影響，但是中國的經濟表現卻比世界其他國家表現的更好；加上台灣與中國的經濟合作越來越緊密，在台灣選出新總統之後也希望透過簽訂ECFA加強彼此的經濟關係，藉此改善台灣的經濟環境，且上海市與台北市
為中國與台灣服務業與金融保險業聚集之一級城市，對辦公市場的需求具有指標性的角色。
根據過去文獻與理論分析出與辦公市場租金較有相關性的總體經濟指標，內容包含國內生產毛額、經濟成長率、貨幣供給額、匯率、基準放款利率、消費者物價指數、股價指數、外資流入這些總體經濟指標比較上海市與台北市辦公市場的租金關係。再透過實證分析中的相關性分析與租金函數分析，對上述總體經濟指標與上海市與台北市的辦公市場租金做分析；以實證分析所產生之結果得到下列之結論：1.通貨膨脹使資產價值被高估，造成租金上漲 2.金融海嘯雖降低辦公大樓需求，但外資仍看好中國經濟發展持續增加投資，而台北市的辦公大樓需求以國內需求為主 3.兩岸股市表現均領先辦公市場租金水準，可預測辦公市場未來租金趨勢 4. 貨幣政策為政府調節房地產市場主要手段。

關鍵字

經濟指標 ； 租金 ； 相關性分析 ； 迴歸分析

並列摘要

In the 2007 U.S. outbreak of the financial turmoil, further contributed to the occurrence of the global financial tsunami, so that the world economic environment has been severely affected, but China's economic performance than the performance of other countries in the world better; with the economic cooperation between Taiwan and China getting closer and closer, to elect a new president in Taiwan, even after the signing of ECFA aims to strengthen mutual economic relations, so as to improve Taiwan's economic environment, and Shanghai and Taipei, China and Taiwan, the service and finance and insurance to gather a city on the office market demand has a target role.
Based on past literature and theoretical analysis of office market rents compared with the more general economic indicators related, contains gross domestic product, economic growth rates, money supply, exchange rate, the benchmark lending rate, consumer price index, stock price index, foreign Comparison of these general economic indicators into Shanghai and Taipei office market rental relationship. And then, through empirical analysis of the correlation analysis and the rent function analysis of the macroeconomic indicators and Shanghai and Taipei office market rental to do analysis; to the results generated by empirical analysis of the conclusions are the following: 1. Inflation, the asset overvalued, resulting in rising rents, 2. the financial tsunami, although the lower demand for office, but foreign investors are still optimistic about China's economic development continued to increase investment, while the Taipei office demand in the domestic demand-driven 3. the performance of cross-strait market-leading office market rent standard, predictable trends in office rental market in the future 4. monetary policy for the government the primary means of regulating the real estate market.

並列關鍵字

economic norms ； rents ； correlation analysis ； regression analysis

參考文獻

7. 楊士德（2009），「北京辦公大樓發展趨勢與租金影響之研究」，淡江大學

9. 謝煜鴻（2006），「影響中國房地產價格之總體經濟變數分析」，國立台灣

4. 中華經濟研究院 http://www.cier.edu.tw

1. 張翊倫（2009），「總體經濟指標與房地產影響因子對不動產投資信託基金

3. 張嘉宇（2008），「台北市辦公大樓租金影響因素分析-以物業管理觀點之分