分析中國－歐元區貿易：貿易引力模型之應用

Analysis of China-Eurozone Trade: An Application of the Gravity Model of Trade

白慧鍈(Sarah Berkovic)

指導教授 ： 柯大衛

淡江大學/國際研究學院/臺灣與亞太研究全英語碩士學位學程/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2016.00462

摘要

引用 1995 至 2014 年期間的年度數據,本論文分析中國和歐元區之 間的貿易。該分析是基於亞當·斯密關於勞動力市場和規模的分工經 濟思想為引力模型的估計。本論文推測,擴大出口可以推動經濟增 長。因此,市場規模與 GDP 的相對大小應密切相關。貿易數據嵌板, 並均以當前美元一位 SITC 數據。有三種基本的解釋變數 - 中國和 個別歐元區國家的名義 GDP (nominal GDP)和混成貿易成本變數。 此外,本論文考慮到四個虛擬變數。其中第一個變數是中國加入 WTO,這發生在 2001 年。我們從經濟和政治觀點分析了世界貿易 組織對中國的影響,也密切注意學者們普遍斷言。第二個變數是 2008 年的經濟危機,對於世界各地的貿易影響力極劇。本論文將討論中 國和歐元區的貿易,在這段時間產生什麼變化。第三個和第四個變 數都與這兩大區域之間舉行的會議和協議相關。雙邊領袖峰會始於 1998 年,目前正每年舉行一次,解決雙邊關係中的關鍵問題。最後 一個變數是中國與歐盟之間從 2003 年開始的全面戰略夥伴關係。如 同事先預測一般,統計分析證實了經濟對貿易相對規模的重要性。 貿易成本,可以解釋貿易在統計學上顯著表現。然而,近幾年出現 這樣貿易成本,並沒有比在早期樣本減少的部分多。由貿易結構顯 示,超過 80%的交易過程僅在三個不同的商品類別(按材料,機械 和運輸設備,雜項製品主要分類的製成品)。

關鍵字

貿易 ； 中國 ； 歐元區 ； 數據嵌板分析 ； 引力模型

並列摘要

Using annual data for the periods 1995-2014, this thesis analyzes trade between China and the Eurozone. The analysis is based on an estimation of a gravity model steeped in the economic ideas of Adam Smith concerning the division of labour and scale of the market. Our derivation rests on the idea that expanding exports can drive growth and therefore should be closely related to the scale of markets and the relative sizes of GDP. The trade data are panelled and are one digit SITC data denominated in current US dollars. There are three basic explanatory variables - the nominal GDPs of China and individual Eurozone countries and a portmanteau trade cost variable. Additionally, the thesis considers four dummy variables. The first of these concerns China’s accession to the WTO, which happened in 2001. We analyse the influence of the WTO from economic and political perspectives and we pay close attention to what scholars have generally asserted. Our second variable is the economic crisis of 2008 that had huge influence on trade around the world. We will discuss what happened to China and Eurozone trade during that time. The third and fourth variables have to do with meeting and agreements that started happening between these two big regions of trade. Summit meetings began in 1998 and are now being held annually, addressing key issues of bilateral relations. The last variable is the Comprehensive and Strategic Partnership between China and EU that started in 2003. The statistical analysis confirms the importance
of the relative size of economy on trade as predicted. Trade costs are also statistically significant in explaining trade, however in recent years it appears such costs have not decreased much more than in the earlier part of the sample. The structure of trade shows that more than 80 percent of trade is done only in three different commodity groups (manufactured goods classified chiefly by material, machinery and transport equipment, miscellaneous manufactured articles).

並列關鍵字

trade ； China ； Eurozone ； gravity model ； panel data analysis

參考文獻

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