臺灣機械產業違約風險與經營績效分析

The Default Risk and Operating Performance　Analysis of Machinery Industry in Taiwan

梁朝棟(Chao-Tung Liang)

指導教授 ： 邱建良

共同指導教授 ： 張鼎煥(Ting-Huan Chang)

淡江大學/商管學院/財務金融學系碩士在職專班/碩士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2017.00623

摘要

論文提要內容：
本研究選取7間臺灣上市機械產業公司從2008年至2016年間35季之財務報表資料，共計245個觀察值，利用KMV模型逐季計算每間公司之預期違約機率，並透過縱橫資料(Panel Data)估計方法，以托賓Q為企業價值之代理變數來探討償債能力、經營能力、獲利能力與財務結構等財務報表指標與經營績效之關聯性，作為機械業公司經營與策略管理建議與參考。研究發現機械產業Tobin’s Q平均值大於1且1年內預期違約機率趨近於零，而負債佔權益比率、速動比率與存貨週轉率皆和經營績效呈現正向顯著關係；應付帳款週轉次數與經營績效間呈現負向顯著關係；研究發展費用率、長期資金適合率與流動比率則與經營績效之關係不顯著。營業毛利率與應收帳款週轉率亦非提升經營績效之要素，經營與償債能力才是影響經營績效之主因。

關鍵字

機械產業 ； 經營績效 ； KMV模型 ； 縱橫資料 ； 預期違約機率 ； 托賓Q

並列摘要

Abstract:
This paper employs KMV model and calculate the Expected Default Frequency with 245 observations recorded from seven Taiwanese stock-listed companies in machinery industry. By using Tobin's Q as the proxy variable of enterprise value and through Panel Data estimation method, the study explores the relationship between operating performance and financial factors such as liquidity, operating ability, profitability and capital structure. The information obtained will help machinery industry to identify and improve operating performance in company and strategy management. The results show the average value of Tobin's Q was greater than 1 and EDF approaches to zero. The study shows a positive significant influence on debt-equity ratio, quick ratio and inventory turnover ratio to operating performance. The relationship between accounts payable turnover and operating performance has a negative significant influence. The research and development cost rate and the ratio of liquidity to business performance is not significant. Gross margin and accounts receivable turnover rate is not the factor to enhance the operating performance. Liquidity and operating ability is the main factor for the impact of business operating performance.

Keywords: Machinery Industry, Operating Performance, KMV Model, Panel Data, Expected Default Frequency, Tobin's Q

並列關鍵字

Machinery Industry ； Operating Performance ； KMV Model ； Panel Data ； Expected Default Frequency ； Tobin's Q

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