由行動經濟學探討吸菸行為及其政策

The Behavioral Economics Studies of Smoking and Related Policy

曾千芳(Chien-Fang Tseng)

指導教授 ： 小山直則

淡江大學/國際研究學院/亞洲研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2013.00695

摘要

吸菸被認為是最主要可預防的死因。進入二十一世紀，日本政府更進一步推動減菸、禁菸政策。吸菸率雖然大幅降低，但仍然有約20％的吸菸率。本論文由行動經濟學的觀點，對於吸菸行為由耐性程度、雙曲性以及幼稚程度等三方面加以探討，並提出禁菸、減菸政策。
許多吸菸者希望戒菸，訂下戒菸計畫，卻往往失敗，這是指數折現之理性成癮模式無法解釋的現象，而可由雙曲折現之現況傾向加以說明。雙曲折現下最主要的行動問題是偏好逆轉，導致「現在的自我」與「未來的自我」發生對立，因此吸菸者的自我約束力，將影響吸菸行為。具雙曲折現的成熟型吸菸者，了解自我的約束力，藉由束縛手段迴避偏好逆轉的發生；幼稚型或偏幼稚型吸菸者，需藉由外部的介入，誘導其選擇，改善其效益，進而增進社會整體利益。
日本政府已提出2022年成人吸菸率12％之目標值。本研究經由文獻探討與分析，提出增加香菸稅與建置吸菸許可制度之政策建議。對於具雙曲折現的成熟型吸菸者，提高香菸稅，可作為其外部束縛機制，提高其戒菸意志；對於幼稚型或偏幼稚型吸菸者，可藉由發吸菸許證之可行，誘導其以戒菸為目標改變吸菸行為。

關鍵字

吸菸 ； 行動經濟學 ； 雙曲折現 ； 香菸稅 ； 吸菸許可制度

並列摘要

Smoking is considered as the major preventable cause of mortality. Turning into 21 century, smoking reduction policies has been promoted further by Japanese government and the prevalence rates of smoking in Japan have been decreased significantly. However, the average smoking rate is still about 20%. This paper would like to analyze the smoking behavior from three points of view according to the behavioral economics, which are rate of time preference (impatience), hyperbolic discounting, and decision maker’s naivety, and then try to propose polices for smoking reduction.
The rational addiction model for tobacco consumption analysis assumes that smokers’ consumer behaviors are forward-looking and time consistent. However, the phenomenon that many smokers want to quit smoking but fail to execute their smoking cessation plan implies that smokers’ decision making are time inconsistent, and it can be explained by the present bias of hyperbolic discounting. Hyperbolic discounting causes preference reversal, and leads the decision maker to be conflict between his or her present self and future self and face the self-control problem. For sophisticated smokers, they recognize their time inconsistency and use self-control devices or commitments to avert their time-inconsistent tendencies. However, for the naïve or partly naïve smokers, they are optimistic about their self-control problem and need external interventions to lead them to make proper decision and maximize their well-being.
The Japanese government has set the goal to reduce the smoking rate to 12% before 2022. Through literature review and data analysis, this paper would like to propose that in order to reduce tobacco smoking, tobacco tax increasing and smoking license system have to be considered in the smoking regulating policy. For the hyperbolic discounting sophisticated smokers, higher tobacco tax will be an effective external commitment to increase their intentions to quit smoking, and on the other hand, for the naïve or partly naïve smokers, smoking license will nudge them to quit smoking.

並列關鍵字

smoking ； behavioral economics ； hyperbolic discounting ； tobacco tax ； smoking license

參考文獻

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