習近平主政時期的緬甸戰略之研究

China's strategy toward Myanmar under Xi Jinping period

莊勝顯(Sheng-Hsien Chuang)

指導教授 ： 翁明賢

淡江大學/國際研究學院/國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2016.00595

摘要

緬甸因獨特地緣關係，不僅是冷戰時期中國確保西南邊境安全，化解西方陣營遏制與圍堵的戰略支點；也是中國改革開放後，自然資源、區域經濟整合以及實現兩洋戰略的重要突破口，對中國深具戰略意義。但只以地緣關係的空間因素探討中、緬關係時，卻也忽略中、緬雙方各在不同時期的國家利益所在，顯得有解釋不足與侷限性。筆者認為，體系的變遷，國家外在環境的變化，才是國家領導人主觀決策的客觀判斷與反應。國家追求利益，而權力僅是手段，而非目的。中、緬的地緣關係因素與其說是雙方交往的外在客觀因素，倒不如說是作為「權力」或「手段」的運用，以滿足中、緬雙方各在不同時期的國家利益需要。而所謂緬甸的政治轉型對中、緬關係受到的影響，也是中、緬雙方朝向正常化國家關係的過渡發展。因此，習近平主政時期的緬甸戰略基礎在於圍繞中、緬雙方實現正常化國家關係發展，以確保中國在亞太美、中競逐新型權力結構下，透過緬甸對其的戰略利益實現平衡區域權力結構構想。

關鍵字

權力平衡 ； 中緬關係 ； 地緣政治

並列摘要

Myanmar, which shares more than 2,186 kilometres of land border with China, plays a very important role in the diplomacy of the People's Republic of China (PRC). Myanmar had served as a geostrategic buffer during the period of Maoist China's confrontations with the West (and the former Soviet Union). In providing political space for China during its period of containment by the West, Myanmar had also served as a channel for Chinese leaders' communications with the outside world prior to Dengist China's economic reforms. Chinese designs on the Indian Ocean further highlight the status of Myanmar as a pivotal strategic nexus. As the Obama administration is keen to support Thein Sein's dual project of political reconciliation and economic reforms, with China's rise clearly in mind, the geopolitical competition over Myanmar between Washington and Beijing is set to intensify.From here, it becomes obvious that while unprecedented challenges may have disrupted previously healthy China-Myanmar ties, this does not mean that bilateral relations have become irreparable. Chinese leadership ,Xi jinping also eager to continue to boost the bilateral relationship with Naypyidaw, which will probably prompt more rounds of competition for greater influence between Beijing and Washington concerning Myanmar.Indeed, it would be more appropriate to assume that a sizeable cross-section of Myanmar's population are rational individuals whose national interests form the basis of their political preferences. In other words, the more pragmatic concerns regarding their country's national interests and the stable trajectory of Myanmar's economic development can be expected to weigh equally in the minds of Naypyidaw's policymakers and populace alike.

並列關鍵字

Balance of power ； China-Myanmar relations ； Geopolitical competition

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