九一一前後美國的台海戰略變化趨勢研究

台海區域是20世紀末被評估為全世界最有可能發生軍事衝突的區域之一，瞭解台灣對於未來的發展及美國在台海地區的戰略操作模式及變化，瞭解台海局勢的危機與轉機。美國在台海戰略利益係在東亞安全架構下台灣防衛，就是增加軍售與促進美台軍事交流，以提升台灣自衛嚇阻能力及與美國軍事的聯繫。台海安全與穩定的結構平衡是美國布希政府戰略清晰中所強調的「中國不動武、台灣不獨立」的雙重嚇阻立場。美國台海戰略的出發點是美國的國家利益。美國的重要利益在於使中國政府和台灣當局配合其全球和亞太戰略的實施。美國運用台灣制衡中國。在軍事方面，美國意圖使台海兩岸能在其控制下達成軍力平衡，因此美國同意軍售台灣防禦武器及監偵裝備，使台灣具備有限度的防衛能力並成為美國的耳目，嚇阻北京以武力快速統一台灣的企圖；但美國同時也限制台灣不得擁有戰略性的攻擊武器，以免台灣主動挑釁中國，導致不可預期的後果。美國國家戰略走向牽動世局，影響全球的安全與安定。美—中—台戰略的佈局對美國有利，美國應會盡力維持這個戰略三角；中國現階段也希望台海和平穩定，因也符合中國現階段的利益。

關鍵字

戰略；兩岸關係；區域三角安全；美中台關係

並列摘要

Taiwan sea region is considered to be one of most possible regions to be under military attack at the end of the 20th century. Understand Taiwan’s future developments and U.S. military strategy’s model and changes in the Taiwan sea region; Understand the threat and changes in Taiwan sea region. U.S.’s military advantage for the Taiwan sea region is depended on the defensive ability of Taiwan which is a part of the security structure of Eastern Asia. Which is to increase weapon sales and other military exchange. To raise Taiwan’s military defense The structure of maintaining safety and stability in the Taiwan sea region is what the U.S. and president Bush clearly emphasize: “China don’t attack, and Taiwan will not be independent.” The starting point of U.S. military strategy for the Taiwan sea region is U.S. financial benefits. The main benefit of US depends on the cooperation of China’s government and Taiwan’s bureau with the whole world and with the strategies and implementations of that area. U.S. uses Taiwan to suppress and balance Taiwan. On the military side, U.S. intends to achieve military balance of Taiwan and China under its supervision. Therefore, U.S. had agreed to sell defensive and observatory weaponry to Taiwan so that Taiwan has the ability to protect itself and thereby prevents Beijing from attacking Taiwan. At the same time, U.S. has limited Taiwan not to have intrusive weaponry, so Taiwan would not attack China and lead to unforeseeable outcome. U.S. military strategies affect the faith of the whole world, its safety and stability. The military positions between U.S., Taiwan, and China is beneficial to the U.S, hence U.S. most likely would work to preserve this tactical triangle. China, at the moment would like to maintain the stability of Taiwan sea regions; hence it also matches the benefits of China at this time.