台灣地區出口產業與經濟成長之研究

The export Industry and economic growth in Taiwan

洪煜茹(Yu-Ju Hung)

指導教授 ： 賈昭南 ； 蔡政言

淡江大學/商學院/國際貿易學系國際企業學碩士班/碩士(2006年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2006.00624

摘要

論文提要內容：

本文以台灣地區為研究對象，探討不同出口產業對其經濟成長的貢獻。在研究期間，台灣主要出口產業分別為化學業、紡織業、塑（橡）膠製品業及機械電子產業。

本研究利用聯立方程模型及1972到2003年這一段期間的統計資料，進行實證分析，模型包含了增列出口之Cobb-Douglas生產函數、出口需求與出口供給三個主要方程式。分別以普通最小平方法（OLS）、二階段最小平方法（2SLS）、三階段最小平方法(3SLS)估計上述方程式。

本研究結果發現：最基礎的生產投入-勞動與資本，對於經濟成長皆呈現正向且顯著的貢獻。各個產業對經濟成長的貢獻依不同經濟發展階段而有所不同。八十年代後，政府致力發展的高科技產業，在整個研究期間對於經濟成長的貢獻凌駕其他產業。

關鍵字

出口產業 ； 經濟成長

並列摘要

Abstract

This thesis estimates the contributions of the export of four mainstream industries, namely, the chemistry, the textile, the plastic & rubber manufacturing and the mechanics and electronics industries, to Taiwan’s economic growth.

The empirical equations consists of an augmented production function which has incorporated the export of the four industries in addition to labors and capitals as input, and one equation representing the export demand and one representing the export supply are combined to form a simultaneous equation system. By using annual data covering the period between 1972 and 2003 to estimate the simultaneous equations, we adopt three estimation techniques-ordinary least squares（OLS）, two-stage least squares methods（2SLS）, three-stage least squares methods（3SLS）, respectively.

The estimated results have shown that labor and capital contributes significantly toward economic growth during the entire period, while the contributions of the four industries varies depending on the stage of the economic development. The more recent emphasis on the mechanics and electronics industries outperformed the other four industries in the study in contributing economic growth.

並列關鍵字

export industry ； economic growth

參考文獻

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