- 學位論文
人民幣國際化發展與挑戰：2008-2014年以來作為
The development and challenges of RMB internationalization from 2008 to 2014
摘要
中國大陸迄今成為當前發展中國家的經濟大國，國際貿易地位不斷提升，加上外匯存底近年來維持中高速增長，惟在此經濟大國、金融弱國背景下，故積極推進人民幣國際化戰略。是以，本研究當透由研討美元、歐元、日圓成為國際化貨幣路徑，掌握人民幣此間國際化程度，以及未來人民幣後續發展趨勢。 人民幣國際化從邊境貿易結算等市場自然演進的「被動式」周邊化階段，轉變為以政府為主導的「主動式」區域化、國際化階段，2009年可謂是人民幣國際化的起步之年；截至2014年12月，人民幣已是全球第五大支付貨幣、第七大儲備貨幣，尤其即將進入的「十三五」時期(2016-2020年)為人民幣發展關鍵時刻，將透由「一帶一路」戰略、加速開放資本帳管制、積極加入特別提款權(SDR)、啟動人民幣跨境支付系統(CIPS)等政策措施，力爭貨幣主導權。 然而，綜觀美、歐、日等國貨幣國際化歷程可知，貨幣國際化過程並非一蹴而就，況且中國大陸在國際貿易和金融中的作用有限，內部仍存資本帳管制、利率與匯率尚未完全市場化等阻礙，人民幣欲實現貿易項目、資本項目、離岸金融中心等跨境流動，進而嵌入全球儲備貨幣體系和大宗商品交易體系中至少需要20年時間，可見短期內以美元主導的國際金融格局恐仍然無法撼動。是以，未來人民幣國際化之路勢將考驗著國際經濟協調問題能力，甚至攸關中國大陸能否實現「和平崛起」，值予後續關注。
並列摘要
China has become the largest economy in the developing countries and its international trade status is rising, with high-speed foreign exchange reserves growth.Ironically, China decided to actively promote RMB internationalization strategy in the underdeveloped financial markets background.Therefore, the author's aim is to find the significant experiences of the US dollar, Euro, yen in the international currency path, and grasping the international degree and the future trend of RMB. RMB internationalization, from the natural evolution of the "passive" surrounding stage into a government-led "active" regional and international stage, can be described as a start in 2009. In 2014, RMB is the fifth largest pay currency, the seventh largest reserve currency in the world. China government will use "One Belt And One Road" strategy, opening capital account control, joining the SDR, start the CIPS measures to strive to dominant right of currency, especially in the "Thirteenth five year plan" period (2016-2020). By overviewing currency international path of US dollar, Euro, yen, we could know that currency international process cannot get results overnight. China’s the international trade and finance role power is still limited and its capital account, interest rate and exchange rate are not in the completely liberal statue. RMB to achieve trade and capital project flow across border and embed global reserves currency system and bulk commodity trading system needs at least 20 years. As a result, US dollar still dominates the international financial structure in the long term. Thus, RMB internationalization will test the coordination of international economic systems and make an important impact on China’s "peaceful rise". It deserves to pay close attention.