新冠肺炎疫情對雙邊貿易的影響：以東協十加六和台灣為例

The impact of COVID-19 on bilateral trade: A case study of ASEAN plus six and Taiwan

張量淇(Liang-Chi Chang)

指導教授 ： 林佩蒨

淡江大學/商管學院/產業經濟學系碩士班/碩士(2022年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2022.00530

摘要

本篇論文旨在探討新冠肺炎疫情對雙邊貿易的影響，鑑於近年來區域經濟整合的蓬勃發展，加上台灣近期積極增進與東協國家的經貿交流，故以東協十加六和台灣作為探討對象。本研究沿用Baier and Bergstrand (2007) 的結構引力模型 (structural gravity model) 作為實證基礎，並運用卜瓦松擬最大概似估計法 (Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood, PPML) 進行實證分析。研究資料則採用2018年1月至2021年3月間東協十加六與台灣之雙邊貿易月資料建構成縱橫資料 (panel data)，並將樣本分成中期、短期以及同時段研究期間，去初步評估新冠肺炎疫情對貿易的影響。隨後，本研究於模型中加入東協十加六區域貿易協定以及此十七國與其出口貿易夥伴間的自由貿易協定虛擬變數，藉以觀察作為不同貿易協定成員是否會減緩抑或是加深疫情對雙邊貿易流量的影響。
透過實證結果發現：(1) 在中期研究中，COVID-19對東協十六國與台灣之雙邊貿易流量並無造成明顯的衝擊效果，而在短期研究中， COVID-19對東協十六國與台灣的雙邊貿易流量則產生負面衝擊。(2) 東協十加六區域貿易協定減緩了COVID-19對貿易造成的衝擊。(3) 東協十六國和台灣與其他國家之間的自由貿易協定對緩衝 COVID-19 的衝擊沒有統計學上的顯著影響。

關鍵字

新冠肺炎疫情 ； 雙邊貿易 ； 貿易協定 ； 東協十加六 ； 結構引力模型 ； 卜瓦松擬最大概似估計法

並列摘要

This study aims to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on bilateral trade. As ASEAN is the nearest trading bloc of Taiwan as well as Taiwanese government’s recent efforts to promote economic integration with ASEAN countries through trade, this research will take ASEAN plus six and Taiwan as our case study. Based on the structural gravity model developed by Baier and Bergstrand (2007), we derived our empirical morel and used the technique of Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) for estimation. Monthly data on bilateral trade flows between ASEAN plus six countries and their trade partners as well as Taiwan and its trade partners are collected for the time horizon from January 2018 to March 2021. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on trade flows in three different time frames, i.e., intermediate term, short-term and same-season periods. We also investigate whether the regional trade agreements of ASEAN plus six and the free trade agreements between these study countries can mitigate or worsen the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on trade.
The main findings of this study are as follows: (1) the shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on the bilateral trade flows in the ASEAN plus six countries seem to calm down in the intermediate-term, while in the short-term and the same-season studies, the COVID-19 pandemic exerts negative shocks on the bilateral trade flows for our case study countries; (2) The regional trade agreements among the ASEAN plus six countries seem to buffer the shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic; (3) The free trade agreements signed by our study countries do not have statistically significant effect on buffering the shocks caused by COVID-19 on bilateral trade flows.

並列關鍵字

COVID-19 ； Bilateral Trade ； Trade Agreements ； ASEAN Plus six ； Structural Gravity Model ； Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood

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