從國家利益角度解析美中互動下美對臺軍售(1993-2013)

A study of U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan under U.S.-China Interaction:A point of National interest(1993-2013)

孫振威(Zhen-Wei Sun)

指導教授 ： 翁明賢

淡江大學/國際研究學院/國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2014.00890

摘要

本研究以文獻分析法、歷史研究法暨歸納分析法交互併行，主要研究在國家利益的驅動下，美中互動對美臺軍售的影響。具體看柯林頓總統執政以來，包括小布希總統以及現任之歐巴馬總統對台ㄒ軍售案，加以研究並進行分析、歸納，發現軍購案的確是美中競合關係的縮影。茲得出研究成果有四。
1.軍購案是為美中台三方戰略角力之縮影，美國以對台軍售案「項莊舞劍，意在沛公」，以此來顯示對中國之親近或「不贊成」，亦以此來宣示對台灣之軍事保護之主權。
2.軍售案亦是中台關係之拔河與角力之作用成果，台灣以軍售案之提出或清單內容，來顯示對中國可能來犯之攻擊或自我防衛之決心。由軍售內容某種程度，亦顯示出中台、美台兩方的關係。
3.中國之對台灣之軍購清單內容之各式反應，某種程度亦在試探美方對台中關係之底線，甚或衝撞美國之獨霸地位，以及美國之對台灣之影響程度，然隨時間推進，中共的反應也漸漸流於形式。
4.台灣對美之軍購，始於美方軍援中止而台海軍事仍然嚴峻之際，唯隨著中台關係之改善，和平交流之展開，以及中國國力之日益強盛，台灣對美之軍購，其象徵意義已然超越實質意義，美方於中台關係之影響亦逐漸淡出，顯示出中國崛起對美國之獨一霸權，的確形成了影響。
至於本研究針對軍購問題，給有關單位所提出之建議是為：
1.有關單位面須正視美對臺軍售質量上逐漸弱化之事實，並在此一趨勢下重新評估國防預算逐年刪減所造成的國防安全問題，以免導致國防終將空虛。
2.中國以和平崛起期待化解中國威脅論之刻板印象，因而台灣如何善用此中國和平崛起之形象塑造，來經由與各國和平協議之簽署，來達到共同制約中國可能侵犯的目的，是為不失可行的方向。

關鍵字

軍購案 ； 國家利益論 ； 台海問題 ； 美中共治

並列摘要

This essay implements documentary analysis, historical analysis, and conclusive analysis, mainly discussing the influence of the interaction between U.S. and China on US Arms Sales to Taiwan. The timeline includes the presidencies of William Jefferson Bill Clinton, George Bush, and currently, Barack Obama. Through in-depth research and further analysis, it is concluded that the Arms Sales is indeed a miniature of the U.S-China competitive-cooperative model, and four major results are obtained, as follows.
1. The Arms Sales serves as the miniature of the strategic wrestling among the U.S, China, and Taiwan, by which the U.S indicates its “disagreeing” with China and declares its sovereign right over Taiwan.
2. The Arms Sales is also a consequence resulting from the to-and fro tussle between China and Taiwan, by which Taiwan reveals its determination of self-defense in case of China’s possible attempt to attack.
3. China’s responses to the listed Arm Sales items reflects its probe into the extent to which the U.S would tolerate with the relationship between China and Taiwan, interfering with the U.S’s dominant role, and challenging the degree of influence the U.S has over Taiwan. However, as time goes by, China’s responses are becoming a mere formality.
4. US Arms Sales to Taiwan started at the end of US. Aid, when the military relationship was still tense between China and Taiwan. However, as the relationship between two sides of the strait turned better, peaceful interaction took place, and China became stronger, the symbolic meaning of the Arms Sales has surpassed its substantial significance, and the impact of U.S on China-Taiwan relationship has faded, reflecting that the emergence of China has affected the U.S’s single supremacy.

The essay addresses the following suggestions for the authorities concerned regarding the Arms Sales issue:
1. The fact that US Arms Sales to Taiwan is gradually deteriorating in both aspects of quality and quantity should be taken seriously, and it is necessary to reevaluate the problems arising from the yea-after-year curtailment of National Defense budget.
2. As China tries to eliminate the stereotype built by the theory of China Threat with Peaceful Rise, it is worth considering for Taiwan to take advantage of this new image establishment and constrain China’s possible offense by signing peace agreements with other countries.

並列關鍵字

Arms Sales ； National Interest Theory ； Taiwan Strait Conflict ； G2

參考文獻

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