影響股價漲跌停之因素分析

Factor analysis of the price limit

陳儒萱(Ju-Hsuan Chen)

指導教授 ： 倪衍森

淡江大學/管理學院/管理科學學系碩士班/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2012.00965

摘要

漲跌停是反應股價表現的指標之一，其相當能影響投資人投資的情緒，並左右投資人選股的意願，此外股民對IPO的標的似乎也相當青睞，而本研究探討的課題乃是IPO是否會影響股價漲跌停。實證結果顯示當年IPO的公司與漲停與跌停比率呈相當顯著的正相關，似可推論不少IPO後的公司有拉抬股價的痕跡，然而當有不菲的資本利得時，股價則容易有跌停式的下滑。是以投資人要IPO的投資標的不要盲目的介入，才不致受到有心人士操控。此外本研究亦發現非董監事之大股東，若其持股比率高，其漲跌停的頻率並不低，似顯示其有操弄股價的痕跡。而流通在外股數高的公司比較容易跌停，此表示投資大眾可能較缺乏專業判斷，容易受到負面消息左右而拋售股份。

關鍵字

IPO ； 公司治理 ； 財務報表 ； 股價表現 ； 漲跌停板

並列摘要

Price limit is one of important indices for stock price informaiveness, which would not only affect the investors’ sentiment, but also influence the investing stocks selected. In addition, the IPO stocks seem to be welcomed by investors. Thus, this study is to investigate whether IPO would affect the price limit, including price up limit, price down limit, or both. The results show that the subsequent performances of the IPO stocks have positive impacts on stock price limit significantly. We might infer that these companies might lift up the shares price to increase the capital gain, and then they would sell shares at their satisfactory price. Afterwards, the share prices might be decline sharply, even to the price limit down. Thus, investors should take the results revealed into account in order to prevent suffering losses caused by the people with manipulating power. In addition, our results disclose the shareholders with high shareholding instead of directors seem to prefer manipulating share prices as evidences shown by the stock price limit happened frequently. In addition, individual investors might own the shares for the companies with lots of shares outstanding. Thus, these individual investors lack of professional knowledge might sell these companies’ shares, even to price limit down, as bad news announced.

並列關鍵字

IPO ； Corporate Governance ； Financial Statement ； Stock Performance ； Price Limit

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