中共人口政策之研究：從一胎化到開放二胎

中國大陸佔有廣大的腹地，自古以來人口數也一直位居全球人口數最多國家之一，根據《中國統計年鑒》的統計資料結果顯示，在1949年中國大陸人口總量為541,670,000人，到1978年已經達到962,590,000人，年平均成長率為14,510,000人，而為了減輕人口增長過快對經濟社會發展所造成的負擔，1955年2月中國衛生部黨組遞交了《關於節制生育問題向黨中央的報告》當中明確表示：根據黨中央指示的精神，我們認為在中國今天的歷史條件下，是應當適當地節制生育的。此時的中國即開始了控制其人口數，提倡晚婚晚育，限制生育。 1979年一胎化全面嚴格實施，生育率確實大幅下降，然而一胎化政策卻也帶來諸多問題，例如人口紅利消失、性別失衡、加重養老與育兒負擔，形成中國「四二一」扭曲型家庭結構等。因人口政策所帶來的種種問題，中國領導人也意識到了這個新的、嚴峻的挑戰，中國共產黨於2015年10月召開的十八屆五中全會上提出全面實施一對夫婦生育兩個孩子的政策，並於2016年初正式實行全面二孩政策，隨著不同專家的預測出生人口數或高或低，然而大陸人口數是否能如預期般地增長，繼續為其經濟貢獻一份力量，以減緩人口老化，找回人口紅利，此事件殊值得我們關注。從人口大國開始，因經濟發展、社會轉型使中國大陸在不同階段實施不同的人口政策，因而，檢視中國大陸1949年以來人口調控政策的鮮明歷史，將幫助我們瞭解大陸在樂觀看待經濟社會發展的前提下，所超出其掌控的因素，而該因素又將如何影響大陸本身，並可將其經驗供他國引以為鑒。

關鍵字

人口紅利；性別失衡；四二一家庭結構；全面二孩政策

並列摘要

China’s owns one of the largest landscapes, in which, China holds the Largest population in the world. According to “China Statistical Yearbook”, its population reaches up to 541,670,000 in 1949 and 962,590,000 in 1978. Annual population growths reach around 14,510,000. Fast growing population creates pressure above social economic growth, in result, China communist party health department made a report on the issue of birth control to the Party Central Committee in 1955 and remark: according to Party Central, we believe due to the history of China, birth control is necessary. Late marriage, late birth and birth restriction has been promoted ever since. Single birth became strict rule in 1979, population went down, but came with a price of demographic dividend, Gender imbalance, lack of senior citizen and youth fund. This creates problem of “Four Two One” family structure in China. Chinese leader saw the threat and problems that Birth control policy create. The Fifth Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Communist Party of China Central Committee in October of 2015 announced couple with two Children policy and made it official in 2016. Following many different forecast, population increase might change the look of economic or to slow down aging society or come back of demographic dividend, will become long term topic to study. From the largest population to economic booming to social transformation, China carried out different rules of population control in different time line since 1949, helps the study to understand that many results could be out of expectation, and as examples to other to learn.