- 學位論文
跨境零售商存貨政策之行動研究
An Examination of Cross-Border Inventory Models:Knowing through Action Research
摘要
本研究考量了由多個供應商和單一跨境零售商面臨非穩定需求所形成的供應鏈，並基於(s, S)存貨政策與(s, Q)存貨政策建立存貨模型。 該模型基於兩種需求制定方法：ARIMA需求和平均需求過程。進而，使用平均交貨天數、缺貨率以及銷貨成本作為績效指標，來評估個案目前存貨政策與採用(s, S)-type inventory policy、(s, Q)-type inventory policy後之結果並進行比較。 通過分析台灣線上零售商店的6489份採購訂單，結果為具有跨境供應商的零售商提供了一個近似最佳解的(s, S)型存貨政策。 該模型是兩個部分所組成：(i)訂單需求預測和(ii)(s, S)型庫存政策和(s, Q)型庫存政策。 我們使用行動研究來分析跨境零售商的庫存模型的表現。結果顯示，使用半年平均法制定需求並搭配(s, S)政策為最適用於個案公司之存貨政策，因其可將訂單平均交貨天數由7.08天降至0.63天，缺貨率由100.00%降至9.49%。 研究結果的關鍵貢獻在於整合庫存模型的兩個組成部分，用以分析零售商和供應商之間跨境供應鏈的訂單歷史數據。希望研究結果可以增進我們對庫存控制的理解，並提供跨境零售商對未來訂單履約與存貨政策制定的洞察。
並列摘要
This study considers a supply chain formed by multiple suppliers and a cross-border retailer facing a non-stationary demand process. We build a inventory model with (s, S)-type inventory policy and (s, Q)-type inventory policy. Using this model, demands can be forecasted on the basis of two demand processes, i.e., ARIMA and average demand process. Performances of the two inventory policies, (s, S)-type and (s, Q)-type, are assessed and compared in terms of average delivery time, stock-out frequency, and cost of selling. Through the analysis of 6489 purchase orders of an online shop in Taiwan, covering a period from January 2012 to July 2017, the results present a near-optimal (s, S)-type inventory policy for a cross-border distribution network with suppliers. The model is a synthesis of two components: (i) order demand forecasting, and (ii) (s, S) inventory policy and (s, Q) inventory policy. We use action research to analyze the performances of inventory models in a cross-border retailer. The results indicate that the use of semi-annual average method with (s, S)-type inventory policy is the most suitable for the case of the company's inventory policy, as it can decrease the order delivery time from 7.08 days to 0.63 days, and decrease the stock-out frequency from 100.00% to 9.49%. The key contribution of the findings is the seamless integration of the two components to analyze order history data for cross-border supply chains between retailer and suppliers. We anticipate that the research findings may enhance our understanding of inventory control and provide insights into cross-border retailers' future inventory polices decision.