- 學位論文
總體經濟因素對電子產業獲利受匯率波動之非線性影響
The Non-Linear Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Earnings of Electronic Industry under the Exchange Rate Volatility
摘要
本研究以2010年第一季至2015年第二季台灣上市之電子業公司為例，並運用Gonzaʹlez, Terasvirta and van Dijk (2004, 2005)所發展的縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型，以出口貿易額、景氣信號綜合分數及消費者物價指數作為解釋變數，並以匯率波動作為門檻變數，觀察在匯率波動下透過總體經濟因素對八大類電子產業之每股盈餘是否存在縱橫平滑移轉效果。 大部分產業在匯率波動大於門檻或小於門檻時，出口貿易額和景氣信號綜合分數對每股盈餘有顯著正向關係，消費者物價指數對每股盈餘有顯著負向關係，表示在景氣熱絡時，生產訂單多，大量的生產可以壓低生產製造成本，消費者購買的售價相對較低，另外近年來電子產品低價化，且產品週期快又短，大量的生產訂單搭配微薄利潤，公司可賺取之獲利提高。
並列摘要
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of exchange rate volatility on the electronic industry by using empirical model of Gonza'lez, Terasvirta and van Dijk (2004, 2005) to verify whether the panel smooth transition. The empirical study will use exchange rate volatility as transfer variables. Furthermore, it uses export trade, monitoring indicator score and consumer price index to estimate how these variables influence the earnings per share. When exchange rates at most of the industries are either higher or lower than the threshold, export trade and monitoring indicator score have a positive influence on earnings per share. In the other hand, consumer price index have a negative relationship on earnings per share, which means when economy booms, lots of orders for goods and a lot of production can reduce the cost for production, and consumers spend relatively lower price buying products. In addition, electric products at low prices, quick and short product cycle and a large number of production orders make companies earn more profit.