企業財務信用風險因子之研究

近年來受 COVID-19 疫情的影響，資訊科技及數位貿易蓬勃發展，同時重組全球經濟面相，企業面臨的挑戰與風險將越趨嚴峻，導致企業的生存更困難，因此建構嚴謹的信用預警模型，提早防範企業財務危機的爆發，可保障投資人、股東、企業經理人與銀行等專業機構等之利益。台灣於 2013 年正式採用 IFRS 國際會計準則，考量樣本的取樣須遵循財務報表的編制符合同個原則，故本研究以 2013 年至 2021 年間台灣陷入財務困境的上市櫃公司為研究對象，選取非金融產業的 30 家危機公司，再選入同會計年度、同產業且規模相近的 60 家正常公司，進行兩者比例為「1:2」的配對。將七大財務構面下之 27 項財務比率作為解釋變數，利用共線性檢定與逐步迴歸分析法篩選具有預測能力的因子，建立 Logistic 模型與區別分析模型。

關鍵字

財務危機；財務比率；財務預警模型； Logistic 模型；區別分析；財務風險因子

並列摘要

In recent years, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic has led to a rapid development of Information Technology and Digital Trade. In addition, the challenges and risks faced by enterprises will become more stringent as a result of the restructuring of the global economy, which causes more difficulties for enterprises to survive. Therefore, a rigorous Credit Warning Model can be constructed to prevent the outbreak of corporate financial crisis and protect the benefits of investors, shareholders, corporate managers and professional institutions including banks. Taiwan adopted IFRS in 2013, and the sampling of financial statements must in accordance with the same principle of financial statement preparation. Therefore, this research selected 30 crisis companies in the non-financial industry and 60 normal companies with similar size in the same fiscal year and industry as the target group for the period from 2013 to 2021, and comparing between each with a ratio of 1:2. Under the Seven Financial Components, the ratios of 27 financial items were used as explanatory variables, and the Common Linearity and Stepwise Regression Analysis can be utilized to select the factors with predictive power and established Logistic and Differential Analysis Models. The results of the experiment confirmed that five financial variables were significantly correlated in the year before the financial crisis.