沖銷成本與匯率波動

Sterilization cost and exchange rate fluctuation

王敏如(Min-Ju Wang)

指導教授 ： 賈昭南

淡江大學/商學院/國際貿易學系國際企業學碩士班/碩士(2006年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2006.00840

摘要

當熱錢大量移動之際，中央銀行可以採取沖銷式的干預，同時達成穩定匯率與國內金融情勢的目標，當中央銀行採行沖銷式干預外匯市場時，必須付出利息成本，此一代價往往成為開發中國家中央銀行決定是否繼續干預的重要因素。
故本文採用與Kletzer和Spiegel（2004）相同的實證方程式，對台灣地區1981年第一季至2005年第一季這段期間的樣本資料進行實證估計，探討沖銷成本是否為影響新台幣對美元匯率的重要因素。實證結果發現匯率隨沖銷成本增加而上升，而上升的幅度則快速縮小。對於這種快速上升特徵的合理解釋，與管理式浮動匯率制度的基本精神不謀而合。

關鍵字

沖銷成本 ； 準財政成本 ； 外匯 ； 管理浮動匯率 ； 干預

並列摘要

When the rapid movements of hot money, central banks can take sterilized intervention to stabilize the exchange rate and domestic financial condition simultaneously. However, sterilized intervention cost the central bank in addition to the loss in interest earnings. When central bank cannot afford to these costs, it will abandon the fixed exchange rates targeting. This essay applies empirical model suggested in Kletzer and Spiegel (2004) to estimate the effects to sterilization costs on the changes in the exchange rates for Taiwan using seasonal data covering the period from 1981 to 2005. The estimated result shows that increased sterilization costs have caused rapid change in the exchange rate movements to which the managed floating exchange rate system is embedded.

並列關鍵字

sterilization cost ； quasi-fiscal cost ； foreign exchange ； managed floating exchange rate ； intervention

參考文獻

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