- 學位論文
影響中美雙方貿易的政經因素：以計量經濟學分析為例
Assessing the Economic and Political Factors Affecting US- China Trade Flows- An Econometric Analysis
摘要
「影響中美雙方貿易的政經因素：以計量經濟分析為例」運用許多的手法來闡釋影響中國與美國貿易的因素。此篇論文以描述1980到2010年間中國和美國的經濟及政治崛起作為開場，其後以完整的文獻回顧來襯托出影響貿易的重要因素。文獻回顧的內容，包含了書籍、學術論文、研討會論文集、智囊團的研究報告、中國和美國相關的聽證會與政府的報告；文獻資料散佈在美國州，蒐集不易，此篇論文將以計量經濟學的理論加以分析收集到的第一手資料。文中將會解釋地心引力模型，並以此模列來評量中國學美國匯率影響變動的結果。此模型特別適用於分析資料間的交影響。 當人們提到中國和美國兩大主要經濟體時， 對雙方而言重要且有利的是美國降低對中國的貿易逆差。此外，美國對中國的貿易只是影響製造業雇用員工的其中一個因素，另外也包括生產率的提升、服務業的員工流動率及全面貿易逆差。如今我們還不確定有多少的美國產業流向中國或其他薪資更為低廉的國家如：墨西哥、泰國、柬埔寨、寮國及越南等。尤其在美國對中國貿易赤字下，美國大量進口中國或其他國家生產的貨品，包括美國在內的外資企業進入中國設廠的情況下，我們更難判斷到底是誰從其中獲利了。針對如何振興美國國內的經濟，很多學者持不同的意見，制度的改變勢必會使美國和中國某些人獲利，某些人失敗。 論文的最後一章用地心弔力模型來探討和評估從2008到2011年間中國和美國五十州間的關係，並將這些關係製成圖表。此篇論文的重點是探討人民幣的美國進、出口中國產品中的角色爭議，有些學者認為這樣會使美國和中國的經濟再次達到平衡，因而促使中國激發出振興國內需求的政策；同時，此論文也將探討兩國間的國內生產總值。
並列摘要
This dissertation employed numerous research methodologies in analyzing the factors affecting U.S.-China trade. First, a detailed history is complied that chart and clarify the rise of political and economic relations between the U.S. and the People's Republic of China beginning in the 1980s and extending to 2010. Second a aomplete review of the literature is undertaken to properly assess which factors are most important in determining trade flows. This literature is not be limited to academic journal articles, but also include: books, working papers, conference reports, publications of research and policy institutions, as well as all relevant Congressional committee hearings and government research reports on U.S.-China trade issues. Third, comprehensive primary source data on U.S.-China trade is collected and processed for use in econometric models. Much of this data is highly disaggregated, and at the state level. Numerous specifications on a basic gravity model will then be estimated and specific hypotheses dealing with the sensitivity of U.S.-China trade to movements in exchange rates, and other variables will be tested. This model is especially suited to panel data relationships and is less constrained micro-economically. When on considers the trade between these two major economies, it's on both sides interest perhaps to lower the U.S. trade deficits with China. In addition, U.S. trade with China is only one of a number of factors affecting manufacture employment, including increased productivity growth. Employment shifts to the service sector, and the overall trade deficit. It is also not clear to what extent production in certain industrial sectors has shifted to China from the United States, as opposed to shifting to China from other low-wage countries, such as Mexico, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, etc. The extensive engagement of foreign multilateral corporations in China's manufactured exports further complicated the issues of who really gets benefits from China's trade, as well as the consequence of a rising U.S. trade deficit with China, since a large share of U.S. imports are coming from foreign firms, including U.S. firms, that have shifted production from one country to China. Still there is a considerable debate among scholars over what policy options would promote U.S. economic interest since changes to the current system would produce both winners and losers in the U.S., as well as in China. Finally, we have estimated simple gravity models between China and the fifty states of America. The data is paneled, but only extends to four years 2008-2011. The major goal of the empirical work in this dissertation is to try to shed light on the continuing controversy surrounding the effect of changes in the RMB and U.S. exports to and imports from China. Many commentators believe that a rise in the value of the RMB relative to the U.S. dollar would increase U.S. exports to China and reduce U.S. imports from China. They claim this would help to rebalance U.S. trade with China and force China to consider policies to stimulate domestic demand. We were also interested in determining the effect of incomes or GDP on the trade flows between China and the fifty U.S. states.