美國自然犯罪率-以區域之觀點

本研究重點在於以個別區域犯罪率，重點觀察有無自然犯罪率存在，有別於Paresh Kumar Narayan, Ingrid Nielsen, and Russell Smyth(2010)所著「Is There a Natural Rate of Crime?」中以美國單一平均犯罪率觀點。景氣之更迭，對於犯罪率究竟有無其影響性？其中各種犯罪類型佔總犯罪較大部分比例如：財產犯罪、入室竊盜、汽機車竊盜等，可明顯看出這些犯罪乃圍繞金錢及物質上的需求，故本研究經由實證分析找尋是否有自然失業率的存在；及觀察美國景氣衰退時點，對照於經H-P Filter調整之美國犯罪率趨勢是否達到高峰，且佐以其他研究數據分析，歸納其犯罪之主要成因。 Narayan, Nielsen and Smyth(2010)以美國總體年犯罪率資料，唯一以實證得出存在自然犯罪率之結論，作出應著眼於長期經濟及社會結構配置的建議；而本研究以劃分美國區域的年犯罪資料來進行研究，此一差別重點著眼於，以區域之觀點更能清楚理解，各區域間犯罪率波動程度不同可能受地理位置、社會結構等因素的不同，故長期下所應施行之政策並不侷限於經濟層面。

關鍵字

自然犯罪；區域； CBL單根檢定； H-P filter

並列摘要

This study focuses on an individual regional crime rates, focus to observe whether there is crime natural, unlike Paresh Kumar Narayan, Ingrid Nielsen, and Russell Smyth (2010) book "Is There a Natural Rate of Crime?" Average crime rate in the United States point of view. Narayan, Nielsen and Smyth (2010) uses the overall crime rate data of the United States and finds out the only evidence of existing the natural crime rate. It advises that it should focus on the long-term of economic and the configuration of social structure. This study uses the year crime data of the divided regions of the U.S. for research , a difference is that in the view of region to understand more clearly the crime rate of each region may be affected by different levels of geographical location and social structure etc..Thus, in the long run , the policies should not be limited to the aspects of economic.

並列關鍵字

Natural crime ； regional ； CBL unit root test ； H-P filter

參考文獻

馬信行(2000)，「犯罪理論之統合分析-以自陳犯罪之研究報告為樣本」，教育與社會研究，35-66。

Becker(1963), “Outsiders: Studies in the Sociology of Deviance.” New York: Free Press.

Becker(1968), “Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach.” Journal of Political Economy 76: 169–217.

Hypothesis Revisited.” Regional Science and Urban Economics 13: 471–486.

Buck, S. Hakim, and U. Spiegel(1985),“The Natural Rate of Crime by Type of Community.” Review of Social Economy 43: 245–259.

國際替代計量

美國自然犯罪率-以區域之觀點

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