影響美國生育率的決定因素之分析

本研究旨在分析影響美國1997-2013年生育率的重要經濟因素。在日新月異的二十一世紀，高科技產品不斷推陳出新，國際貿易網路活絡，世界各國的經濟發展逐漸提升，多數國家的教育水平與醫療資源也獲得改善，生活水準隨之提高。然而，在各國社會發展經濟的同時，卻面臨生育率逐漸降低的少子化問題。且因為經濟發展和社會觀念轉變等原因，不少婦女選擇少生或甚至不生小孩，導致不少國家的生育率急速下降。而生育率與死亡率的降低，也會使整體人口結構趨向高齡化。高齡化社會的現象，將會導致未來勞動力短缺與產能下降、國家稅收緊縮以及競爭力不足的負面現象。因此，為了解美國生育率持續下降的癥結所在，本文將應用模型以探討1997至2013年間美國生育率下降的決定因素，藉由生育率連結美國國內生產毛額、失業率等變數，利用追蹤資料(panel data)參數進行估計，分別以一般最小平方法迴歸（Pooled OLS）、固定效果迴歸（fixed effects）、隨機效果迴歸（random effects）及組間估計迴歸（between group）來驗證模型的正確與否。本研究實證結果顯示，美國各州國民生產毛額對生育率有在統計上顯著性的正向影響；而失業率則有顯著性的負向影響。因此本研究認為美國國內生產毛額的下降，以及失業率的增加，皆是促使美國生育率下降的原因。

關鍵字

生育率；國內生產毛額；失業率；追蹤資料；經濟因素

並列摘要

Abstract: This thesis proposes to analyze the important determinants of birthrate in the US over the period 1997-2013. In a rapidly changing of the twenty-first century, the high-tech products advance all the time, the international trading becomes vibrantly, the world economy gradually improved, and the education and medical have improved in most countries. Then, the living standard have increased. However, while the economic developing, most of countries are faced with the low birthrate problems. Due to the economic development and social concepts changed, many women choose to have fewer or even no children. Thus, a rapid decline in birthrate in many countries. Moreover, the decrease of birthrate and mortality also make the population structure tends to aging. The phenomenon of an aging will lead to labor shortages, productivity decline, the countries' tax recession and lack of competitiveness. Hence, a model is constructed to examine the reason of birthrate decline, via birthrate linking Gross domestic product and unemployment rate. Then, use panel data to underline empirical analysis. Respectively Pooled OLS regression, fixed effects regression, random effects regression and between group regression to verify the model is correct or not. The empirical results suggest that the birthrate decline factors such as GDP is significant positive influence on birthrate decline. Besides, the empirical also show that the unemployment rate is significant negative influence. In conclusions, the decline of US GDP and the raise of the unemployment rate are the reasons of birthrate decline in the US.

並列關鍵字

Birth rate ； GDP ； Unemployment rate ； Panel data regression ； Economic determinants

參考文獻

張瑋珍 (2010)﹐“全民健康保險對婦女生育選擇的影響﹐”國立暨南國際大學經濟學系研究所碩士論文

駱明慶 (2007)﹐“台灣總生育率下降的表象與實際﹐”研究台灣﹐No.3﹐pp.37-60

The Economist (2011)﹐“The Fight from Marriage”

Adsera, Alicia (2005)﹐“Vanishing Children﹕From High Unemployment to Low Fertility in Developed Countries﹐” The American Economic Review﹐95(2)﹕Papers and Proceedings of The One Hundred Seventeenth Annual Meeting of The American Economic Association﹐Philadelphia﹐PA﹐January 7-9﹐pp.189-193

Barro, Robert J. and Becker, Gary S. (1989)﹐“Fertility Choice in A Model of Economic Growth﹐” Econometrica﹐57(2)﹐pp.481-501

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影響美國生育率的決定因素之分析

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