「反中」事件的原因與影響：蒙中關係之分析

由於歷史、領土、主權以及另一鄰國俄羅斯對蒙古之影響等因素，蒙古社會中長期存在著對中國普遍的不信任甚至是厭惡。而在如此的背景下，蒙古2017年總統大選以及塔溫陶勒蓋煤礦自焚事件和中國在蒙礦業投資，皆因出現「反中」的言論而被外界視為「反中」事件。本研究透過文獻分析以及訪談，近一步深究此二事件的背景與內涵。此外，亦以權力不對稱結構理論來試著分析蒙古處於蒙中大小國間不對稱關係中是如何處理對中政策以及外交大戰略。本研究發現，此二事件並非全然的「反中」事件，以蒙古的國內政治問題稱之會更加適當。然而，由於外界對於蒙古「反中」的印象以及蒙古自己對中長年以來不佳的觀感，導致這些事件被冠上「反中」事件的標題。再者，儘管蒙古確實存在對中國的負面印象，蒙古總地還是維持其以中俄為首要的外交戰略。而在權力不對稱結構中，中國的確長期忽視身為小國的蒙古；蒙古縱然對於中國的作為較為敏感，擔憂領土與主權問題，但受限於地理位置及經濟發展等因素，貿然破壞與中關係，並不利蒙古發展。在可預見的未來，蒙古依然會繼續維持與中國的友好關係。

關鍵字

「反中」事件；權力不對稱結構理論；蒙古；中國；蒙中關係

並列摘要

Due to the historical legacies and the influence imposed by Russia, Mongolian have for long hold strong suspicion or even hatred toward China. Under such context, the 2017 presidential election in Mongolia and the suicidal event regarding China’s investment in Tavan Tolgoi mining ground were labelled as “anti-China” phenomena. This research project investigates the causes to these events by applying the method of analyzing related documents and literature and interviewing with Mongolian intellectuals. The theoretical approach adopted in this research is provided by the theory of asymmetric relationship. Several concepts extracted from the theory of asymmetric relationship were applied for further explaining how Mongolia deals with its foreign relations, especially the bilateral relationship with China. The outcome of this research revealed that none of the above mentioned phenomena are truly anti-China events; the causes are actually domestic political disputes inside of Mongolia. The cover of “anti-China” of these events, which was mostly imposed by international media, was in fact the result of the negative image of China in Mongolia. Despite the stereotypes about China in the domestic society, the Mongolian government remains positive diplomatic relationship with Beijing. The reality of being the weaker side of the asymmetric bilateral relationship has made Mongolia vulnerable that not a lot of options left for its foreign policy making, but continuing maintaining good relationship with China.