所得分配與財政赤字之關係

The Relationship between Income Distribution and Fiscal Performance: An Evidence from Taiwan

楊宜靜(Yang Yi-Ching)

指導教授 ： 曾巨威

國立政治大學/社會科學學院/財政學系/碩士(2019年)

https://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU201900759

摘要

財政赤字及所得分配不均，是許多國家所面臨的重要挑戰。我國政府自1989年開始採取擴張性財政政策，因此財政赤字占GDP比重明顯上升。而2000年以來GINI係數仍不斷上升，約在0.33-0.35之間，代表所得分配有惡化之趨勢。若能清楚了解所得分配以及財政赤字之間的關係，將能成為政府未來決策時之重要依據。因此本研究之目標為探討財政赤字發生與所得分配不均之間的交互關係。為了能有效解決當前我國財政赤字與所得不均問題，本研究透過我國1976-2017年時間序列的資料，以向量自我迴歸模型、結構向量自我迴歸模型、因果檢定、衝擊反應函數與預測誤差變異數分解方法來探討所得分配與財政赤字之關聯。
實證結果顯示，我國財政赤字對所得分配的影響為負向，但所得分配對財政赤字的影響並無統計上顯著性；稅課收入對所得分配的影響為正向的關係；而投資增加，有助於減緩財政赤字狀況。另外，當考量經濟成長、投資率、政府稅課收入與消費支出變數時，研究結果為財政赤字對經濟成長的影響為正向；所得分配對經濟成長的影響則為負向；所得分配對稅課收入影響為負向；財政赤字與政府消費支出則為雙向因果關係。

關鍵字

財政赤字 ； 所得不均 ； 向量自我迴歸模型 ； 結構向量自我迴歸模型

並列摘要

The fiscal deficit and income inequality are ordeals in many countries worldwide. Since 1989, the Taiwan government has over-exploited fiscal expansion policy causing the percentage of fiscal deficit in GDP dramatically increase. In addition to fiscal deficit, the Gini coefficient keeps rising from 0.33 to about 0.35 from 2000 indicating increasing income inequality in Taiwan society. Hence, this study aims to elucidate the interaction between fiscal deficit and income inequality. The present study adopted the vector autoregression model, structural vector autoregressive model, impulse response functions, forecast error variance decomposition and causality test combined with the time series data from 1976 to 2017 in Taiwan to study the relation between fiscal deficit and income distribution.
The results showed that the fiscal deficit in Taiwan had a negative impact on income distribution. However, the income distribution did not significantly affect the fiscal deficit. There was a positive relationship between tax revenue and income distribution, and, furthermore, an increase in investment can alleviate the fiscal deficit. In addition, when economic growth, investment, tax revenue, and government spending were taken into account, the results indicated that fiscal deficit and economic growth were positively related. Nevertheless, there was a negative relationship between income distribution and tax revenue as well as fiscal deficit and government spending. Finally, there was a two-way causality relation between fiscal deficit and government spending.

並列關鍵字

fiscal deficit ； income distribution ； Vector autoregression (VAR) model ； Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model

參考文獻

中文部分

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黃郁升(2016)，〈如何改善我國財政赤字-開源或節流? 〉，國立政治大學財政研究所碩士論文。

廖俊傑(2017)，〈財政赤字與所得分配之共整合分析〉，國立高雄應用科技大學財富與稅務管理研究所碩士論文。

魏伶桂(2007)，〈從全球化經濟及所得分配失衡層面探討財政赤字之擴張〉，國立臺北大學財政研究所碩士論文。