景氣循環與投資策略

Business Cycles and Investment Strategist

馬慶權(Mah Ching-Kheen)

指導教授 ： 廖四郎

國立政治大學/商學院/金融學系/碩士(2019年)

https://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU201900164

摘要

投資者在投資過程中皆是風險趨避個性，但在趨避風險時卻只規避了個別產業風險，但產業的獲利能力卻會受到景氣循環變動影響。然而，景氣循環變動卻非常難預測，各國的經濟研究局在判定景氣循環轉折也要延遲1至2年時間。而本研究將發現採用領先指標配合Bry & Boschan判定方法可使投資者能自行提早判定景氣循環變動，並且能規避短期景氣循環衰退，使投資者能提早調整投資策略以提高投資報酬率。然而本研究並且採用Dagnino方法將景氣循環分為六個階段，探討各景氣循環階段產業的表現，經由本研究發現金融保險產業確實具有預期景氣循環之特性，在景氣衰退期間，防衛性產業仍然具有增長的表現。而投資者在相對的景氣循環階段以該階段表現的產業制定出適當的投資組合，將可使投資報酬率最佳化。

關鍵字

景氣循環

並列摘要

Investors are risk-avoiding personality in the investment process, but only avoid individual industry risks when avoiding risks, but the profitability of the industry will be affected by the cyclical changes in the economy. However, the changes in the economic cycles are very difficult to predict, and the Economic Research Bureaus of various countries have to delay the transition of the business cycles by one to two years. The study will find that using leading indicators in conjunction with Bry & Boschan's decision-making method allows investors to determine the changes in the business cycles early and avoid the short-term business cycles, allowing investors to adjust their investment strategies early to improve their return on investment. However, this study also uses the Dagnino method to divide the business cycles into six stages and explores the performance of the industry in each cycles. Through this study, it is found that the financial and insurance industry does have the characteristics of the expected business cycles. During the recession, the defensive industry still has the performance of growth. Investors in the relative economic cycles stage to develop an appropriate portfolio of industries in this stage will optimize the return on investment.

並列關鍵字

Business cycles ； Bry & Boschan ； Dagnino

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