中美貿易戰對產業的影響

中國自從 2001 年加入 WTO，對美國的貿易順差不斷增加，美國認為巨額貿易逆差影響到美國就業、美國經濟。這些年，美國與中國的貿易摩擦不斷，從 2017 年美國啟動“301 調查”，到 2018 年公佈“301 調查”結果，此後貿易戰停停打打，持續了兩年之久，對產業產生了一定的影響。本文採用事件分析法研究中美貿易戰事件對中國各行業指數的影響，並由此推知貿易戰對各行業的影響，梳理了從 2017 年到 2019 年末美國對中國的貿易政策，另外也將拜登上臺列入研究對象，拜登贏得大選也可能會影響中美貿易。行業指數用申萬宏源一級行業分類，剔除綜合行業，一共包括二十七個行業。研究各事件對各行業指數前後一天，前後五天，前後十天變化的影響，看其是否會產生顯著影響。結果發現：（1）中美貿易戰對中國的產業多是負面影響，負面消息對市場的衝擊很大。而正面消息如：中美第一階段合作協議達成，對市場幾乎沒有顯著影響，這說明市場對負面消息更為敏感。（2）中美貿易戰對中國大多數行業而言，短期衝擊比較大，即除了醫藥生物以外所有行業前後一天指數變化都出現至少一次負顯著影響。中期隨著時間流逝，這種影響在減弱，但是長期來看，依然對絕大多數行業存在負向顯著影響。（3）在中美貿易戰所有事件中有三個關鍵事件，這三個事件幾乎使中國所有行業指數產生了負向顯著影響，它們分別是 2018 年 3 月 22 日美國公佈“301”調查結果、 2018 年 6 月 15 日美國公佈“301 調查”課稅清單、2019 年 5 月 6 日特朗普推特宣布将對 2000 亿美元的中國商品由 10%提稅至 25%，中美近 10 個月的談判被推翻。（4）中美貿易戰對於不同的產業會有不同的影響，其中高科技與技術型產業受到的影響最大，如電子元器件、通信、計算機等。中美貿易戰的事件短期會引發市場恐慌，產生系統性的金融風險，對所有行業會造成短期負面影響，隨著時間推移，這種短期的負面情緒被市場消化，但是長期的負面影響還將持續存在，尤其是對像技術型行業、高端製造業將會產生影響巨大。中美貿易戰不僅是兩國貿易領域的博弈，而且是中高端行業的博弈。

關鍵字

中美貿易戰； Tail Event 分析法

並列摘要

Since China joined the WTO in 2001, its trade surplus with the United States has continued to increase. The United States believes that the huge trade deficit affects US employment and the US economy. From the start of the "301 Investigation" by the United States in 2017 to the announcement of the results of the "301 Investigation" in 2018, the trade war ceased and lasted for two years. This article uses the event analysis method to study the impact of various events in the Sino-U.S. trade war on China's various industry indexes. The results found that: (1) The Sino-U.S. trade war has mostly a negative impact on China's industries, and negative news has a great impact on the market. The market is more sensitive to negative news. (2) For most industries in China, the Sino-U.S. trade war cause large short-term impact, that is, all industries except pharmaceutical and biological industries have at least one negative significant one day before and after the change. In the medium term, this effect is weakening, but in the long run, it still has a significant negative impact on most industries. (3) There are several key events in all events of the Sino-U.S. trade war. These three events have made almost all the industry indexes in China appear negatively significant. They are the results of the "301" survey published by the United States on March 22, 2018.On June 15, 2018, the United States announced the "301 Investigation" tax list. On May 6, 2019, Trump announced on Twitter that it would raise taxes on US$200billion of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%. (4) The Sino-U.S. trade war has different effects on different industries. High-tech, technology-based industries have been most affected, that is, electronic components, communications, and computers have suffered the most longterm impact.