影響營建機具價格因素之探討-以美國為例

Determinants of Construction Equipment Prices in the United States

溫斐瑱(Fei Chen Wen)(Anthony Laurence)

指導教授 ： none

國立政治大學/社會科學學院/應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)/碩士(2020年)

https://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202000410

摘要

設備生產價格已顯示出經濟整體健康狀況的反映。此外，除了與建築相關的設備價格（例如，挖掘機，起重機和吊索鏟價格（ECDP）和通用機械價格（GMP））以外，對於建築設備價格（CEP）也是如此。最重要的是，由於包括資本在內的許多資產類別的效率提高，過去幾十年來的技術進步降低了價格。但是，在學術文獻中，總體上設備價格的相關性已被很大程度上忽略。對於CEP，ECDP和GMP更是如此。那麼，CEP，ECDP和GMP有什麼關聯？利用聖路易斯聯邦儲備銀行1993年至2019年的月度數據，本文使用普通最小二乘（OLS）回歸和向量自回歸（VAR），後者採用正交化的脈衝響應函數（OIRF）來確定什麼CEP，ECDP和GMP的長期關聯，有時還包括短期關聯。 OLS方法和VAR的OIRF的結果表明，許多技術，宏觀經濟和商品變量始終與這些指數相關。但是，最一致的相關變量是那些

關鍵字

美國 ； 向量自回歸 ； 美國建築業 ； 普通最小二乘回歸 ； 時間序列 ； 工程設備價格

並列摘要

Equipment production prices have been shown to be a reflection of the overall health of economies. Additionally, this is also true for Construction Equipment Prices (CEPs) in addition to construction-related equipment prices such as excavator, crane, and dragline prices (ECDPs), and general machinery prices (GMPs). On top of this, technological progress over the past few decades has lowered prices due to increased efficiency for many asset classes including capital. However, correlates of equipment prices in general has been largely ignored in the academic literature. This is even more so true for CEPs, ECDPs, and GMPs. What then are the correlates of CEPs, ECDPs, and GMPs? Using monthly data from 1993 until 2019 from the Bank of the Federal Reserve in St. Louis, this thesis uses ordinary least square (OLS) regressions and vector autoregressions (VARs) the latter of which implements orthogonalized impulse response functions (OIRFs) to determine what the long-term correlates and in some instances short-term correlates of CEPs, ECDPs, and GMPs. The results of the OLS method and the VAR’s OIRFs show that a number of technological, macroeconomic, and commodity variables consistently correlate with these indices. However, the most consistently correlated variables are those associated with financial markets.

並列關鍵字

Construction Equipment Prices ； US Construction Industry ； Vector Autoregression ； Ordinary Least Square Regression ； Time Series ； United States

參考文獻

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