市地重劃對鄰近房價之影響-以土城暫緩發展區為例

市地重劃能夠同時為政府及重劃區內土地所有權人帶來效益，為政府積極推動之都市土地開發方式之一。然而，近年來逐漸出現民眾對於重劃區內高房價現象質疑的負面新聞報導，重劃區內地價飆漲所連帶引起高房價現象，引起民眾質疑重劃炒作房價，使得民眾無法負擔。而過往文獻指出市地重劃確實有效帶動重劃區內房價的上漲，主要原因為公共設施完備和居住環境適宜吸引人口移入。然市地重劃為土地整體開發的方式之一，除開發區本身會因環境改善而有較高房價外，鄰近地區往往受到開發區帶動地區發展，可能使該鄰近地區的房價也隨之水漲船高。因此本研究將有別於過去探討重劃區內的房價變動，以分析市地重劃對重劃區外房價的影響。本研究選定新北市土城暫緩發展區及附近地區市地重劃開發案為研究主體，採用內政部不動產交易實價登錄資料庫 2012 年 8 月至 2019 年 9 月之新北市土城區不動產交易資料，運用 Spline 迴歸模型分析市地重劃影響範圍，實證結果為 400 公尺，再利用一般迴歸模型結合差異中之差異法探討市地重劃實施前後對鄰近房價之影響。為了避免空間相依問題影響研究結果，採用空間延遲模型結合差異中之差異法改善可能存在之空間相依問題。空間上將受重劃影響之範圍 400 公尺內設為實驗組，不受重劃影響之範圍 400 公尺外設為對照組。另本研究亦對市地重劃施行過程的三個時間點，進行鄰近房價如何變動之分析。將土城重劃區內抵費地標售完畢之時間點視為重劃完成時點，以市地重劃公告、市地重劃完工、市地重劃完成三個時間點作為事件發生時點，探討市地重劃各時程前後對鄰近房價之不同影響。研究結果顯示市地重劃完成會造成土城重劃區鄰近400公尺內房價上升，證實市地重劃確實可以帶動區域房價上漲，並且具有一定的外溢效果，然市地重劃公告和完工兩個時間點對於鄰近房價則無顯著影響。

關鍵字

市地重劃；外溢效果；差異中之差異法；樣條迴歸模型；空間延遲模型

並列摘要

Land readjustment brings benefits to both the government and landowners. It is one of the urban land development methods by the government. However, in recent years, in contrast to the housing price in the neighborhood, higher housing prices in the readjustment area is argued. High housing prices are unaffordable for people. The researches pointed out that housing prices rise much more in the area after land readjustment. The main reason might be the excellent public facilities and well-living environment, which attracts people to move in the readjustment area. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impacts on neighboring housing prices at three events happening (announcement of land readjustment project, completion of land distribution to landowners, and sold out of cost-equivalent land) on land readjustment process. A case study of the Tucheng land readjustment project in New Taipei City is used in this research. In order to exam the influential boundary to the land readjustment project, the Spline regression model was used to find that the housing prices rise significantly within 400 meters. Then a DID test with the ordinary least squares model showed that there are significant impacts on neighboring housing prices next to the Tucheng land readjustment area. Furthermore, the spatial lag model was executed to resolve possible spatial dependence problems. One of the findings is that only when the land readjustment increases the housing price within 400 meters from the readjustment area. It proves somewhat of the spillover effect that the implementation of land readjustment increases housing prices in the neighborhood. However, housing prices have no significant impact on the announcement of the land readjustment project and completion of land distribution to landowners.