球員選秀順位與未來表現之關聯性分析：以NBA為例

Draft Order and Players' Future Performance: Evidence from the National Basketball Association

謝書昀(Shie Shu-Yun)

指導教授 ： 陳鎮洲

國立政治大學/社會科學學院/經濟學系/碩士(2021年)

https://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202100578

摘要

本研究採用美國籃球聯盟西元 2006 年至 2017 年順利通過兩輪選秀之新秀球員數據資料，以迴歸不連續法，估計球員選秀順位與其未來表現關聯性。實證結果顯示，在前三年的職業生涯中，高選秀順位球員相較於低選秀順位球員，並未擁有較佳表現。在職業生涯第二年，高選秀順位球員相較於低選秀順位球員， 平均每場比賽獲得較多上場時間;然而，此結果並不穩定。去除了同一賽季中，曾有轉換過球隊的球員後，仍獲得類似結果。因此，推斷此不穩定結果現象可能為樣本數不足原因所致。

關鍵字

NBA選秀 ； 球員表現 ； 運動經濟學

並列摘要

The goal of this paper is to examine the correlation between draft order and players’ subsequent performance using draftees’ statistics between 2006 and 2017 from the National Basketball Association (NBA). A regression discontinuity design is applied to capture the effect of draft order. The results show that higher-drafted players are not more productive than lower-drafted players throughout the first three years of their career. Although higher-drafted players have more playing time per game than lower-drafted players in their second year, the results are unstable. In a subgroup analysis, I find similar results. A possible reason for the unexpected results may lie in the inadequacy of the sample size.

並列關鍵字

NBA draft ； Player performance ； Sports economics

參考文獻

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