天氣對保險購買行為之影響分析

行為財務學主張天氣對於投資人情緒與風險判斷有顯著影響，天氣會影響消費者的心情與情緒，進而影響消費者對風險的偏好與判斷，根據文獻指出晴朗的天氣與樂觀的情緒有關，會使消費者增加對風險的偏好，此即「陽光效應」。本文主要探討保險是否也會受到天氣影響而產生天氣效應，天氣是否影響要保人情緒，進而影響風險偏好而反映在保障額度的選擇上，以驗證陽光效應是否一樣存在與於保險消費行為中。本文以回歸模型檢定某壽險公司實際投保2015-2019年間的傷害保險資料，分析保戶投保金額與天氣因子之間的關係。行為財務文獻發現天氣越好，導致越樂觀也越積極投資的「陽光效應」，但實證結果顯示保險交易中，則存在天氣越不好，導致情緒低落風險意識提高投保更高保險金額的行為。由於陽光此時與保險金額之間為反向關係，為避免混淆，本文將此陽光對保險金額之影響稱為「烏雲效應」。同時文中也將天氣資料進行分群並連結至要保人的情緒，分別探討在該情境下要保人對於陽光以及其他不同天氣因子的反應。根據本文的實證結果，未來保險公司在銷售商品時，建議可以針對不同的情境來因應消費者不同的情緒，並根據陽光及其他天氣因子的差異來調整行銷策略。

關鍵字

天氣效應；日照時數；行為保險；情緒變數

並列摘要

Articles in behavioral finance state that weather has a significant impact on investors’ sentiment and risk judgment, and that nice weather is related to optimistic sentiment. Motivated by weather effect in behavioral finance, we examined the relationship between sunshine and the insurance amount purchased by policy holder. We used the ordinary least squares regression to analyze the impact of weather on the insured's risk preference, as well as the role of sunlight effect in insurance. The data is from one of the top five life insurance companies, from 2015 to 2019. Compared to sunshine effect in behavioral finance, sunshine has an inverse relationship with the insurance amount. In order to avoid confusion, we refer to the effect of sunshine on the insurance amount as "cloud effect". Results showed that cloud effect existed in some circumstances such as the weather that made people feel down or bright. We also grouped the weather data and linked to the mood of the policy holders, to conduct further discussion of cloud effect and mood effect. According to the empirical results of this article, we suggest that insurance companies can respond to different emotions of consumers according to different weather situations, and adjust marketing strategies based on sunshine or cloud and other weather factors.