全球化對制裁效力的影響

Effects of Globalization on Sanction Effectiveness

傑姆(Artem Kovalenko)

指導教授 ： 薛健吾

國立政治大學/國際事務學院/國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS)/碩士(2020年)

https://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202001515

摘要

在有關制裁效力的文獻中，學者們發現了許多變量，這些變量會影響目標國家是否屈服於發送者的要求或堅持並屈服制裁。但是，很少有研究談論全球化對制裁結果的影響。全球化是一個連接國家並在參與者之間建立聯繫的過程。這項研究發現，先前研究中影響制裁有效性的因素可以歸因於全球化，因此，全球化有可能與目標國抵抗制裁和制裁的能力相關。
該研究分別評估了政治，經濟和社會全球化的影響。許多研究人員都採用這種劃分方法，這是由於全球化是一個複雜的術語，其中包含許多變量。這些措施反過來對制裁結果產生不同的影響。
預計政治全球化指數的提高將有助於目標成功擊退制裁國的需求。上述全球化類型所產生的信任和透明度對於取得這一成果至關重要。同時，經濟和社會全球化並沒有改變有效性水平，因為它們由變量組成，如果一一估計，變量與最終結果呈正相關或負相關。因此，減輕了這兩種類型對一般制裁結果的影響。
通過應用TIES和KOF數據以及評估秘魯和印度尼西亞的案例，該研究能夠更清楚地顯示政治全球化的影響。從1992年到2005年，這兩個國家都面臨著幾次制裁事件，而且隨著政治全球化指數的提高，他們能夠轉移發件人的要求，儘管在此之前它們被迫默認。

關鍵字

經濟制裁 ； 制裁效力 ； 全球化 ； 政治全球化 ； 人權 ； 制裁結果

並列摘要

In the literature on sanctions effectiveness, scholars have discovered a large number of variables, which have an impact on the decision of a target state to succumb to sender’s demands or to stand firm and deflect sanctions. However, few studies talk about the influence of globalization on sanction outcomes. Globalization is a process which connects nations and creates ties between actors. This research discovered that factors affecting sanction effectiveness from previous studies could be attributed to globalization, thus, there is a possibility that globalization may correlate with an ability of a target to resist sanctions treats and impositions.
The study assessed the effects of political, economic and social globalizations separately. Such division is used by a number of researchers, and is due to the fact that globalization is a complicated term, which includes many variables. These measurements in their turn have a different impact on the sanction outcome.
Increase in the political globalization index is predicted to help a target to successfully repel sender’s demands. The trust and transparency created by the aforementioned globalization type are crucial in getting this outcome. At the same time economic and social globalizations do not change the effectiveness level, as they are comprised of variables, which if estimated one by one have either positive or negative correlation with the final outcome. Thus, mitigating the effects of these two types on the general sanction’s result.
By applying the TIES and the KOF data as well as evaluating cases of Peru and Indonesia the study was able to show clearer the impact of political globalization. Both countries from 1992 to 2005 faced with several sanctions’ episodes, and with the increase in their political globalization index they were able to deflect sender’s demands, although before that occurred they were forced to acquiesce.

並列關鍵字

Economic sanctions ； sanction effectiveness ； globalization ； political globalization ； human rights ； sanctions outcome

參考文獻

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