習近平時代的中國在東海的強硬行為分析

本論文使用新古典現實主義來分析中國的國內政治和其領導人的想法，是如何驅動中國對日本的強硬行為。隨著2012年日本民主黨將尖閣群島國有化，中日關係陷入了最糟糕的階段。由於前首相安倍晉三最初的政策是在經濟和軍事上遏制中國的崛起，所以即使在自民黨的安倍上任後，兩國之間的關係仍然處於高度緊張的狀態。但隨著安倍晉三在2016年前後將其對中國政策轉變為有意合作的政策，中日關係出現了改善的跡象。然而2017-2019年期間，中日關係在經濟和外交上的改善，並不一定能緩解兩國在東海領土主權問題上的緊張。本論文假設，中國對自身實力不斷增強的看法以及權力集中在習近平手中，推動了中國咄咄逼人的外交政策立場，導致中國的外交政策出現矛盾。因此，只要中國保持其經濟影響力且習近平繼續執政之下，中國在尖閣群島的挑釁行為即不可能會有緩和之可能性。

關鍵字

新古典現實主義；中日關係；核心利益

並列摘要

This thesis uses neoclassical realism to analyze how China’s domestic politics and perceptions of its leaders drive Chinese assertive behaviors toward Japan. With the Democratic Party of Japan nationalizing the Senkaku Islands in 2012, China-Japan relations fell into the worst phase. Even after the inauguration of Shinzo Abe of the Liberal Democratic Party as prime minister, relations between the two countries remained highly tense because Abe’s initial China policy was to contain China’s rise economically and militarily. However, as Abe shifted his China policy to a more cooperative approach around 2016, Japan-China relations showed signs of improvement. Nevertheless, the economic and diplomatic improvements in Sino-Japanese relations during the 2017-2019 period did not necessarily ease the tension over the territorial sovereignty issue in the East China Sea. This thesis assumes how China’s perception of its growing strength and the concentration of power in Xi’s hands have encouraged China’s aggressive foreign policy stance, resulting in contradictions in China’s foreign policy. Therefore, as long as China retains its economic influence and Xi continues to be in power, it is unlikely that China’s provocative actions in the Senkaku Islands will ease up.