產業園區脆弱度評估與調適策略規劃之研究-以編定工業區為例

受到極端氣候之影響，若發生颱風、地震、水災、旱災等天然災害，可能使災害規模提升，嚴重影響環境安全和經濟發展損失。產業園區是由不同規模之企業所組成，內部廠商、產業群聚與生產鏈結相互依存更加劇災害所帶來的衝擊，不同產業園區脆弱度決定了該區整體性的潛在危害與預期後果，透過脆弱性評估以確定園區可能存在的脆弱因子與潛在風險。根據經濟部統計，中央部會所報編之產業園區面積共18,745公頃，而工業局下轄之編定工業區約11,539公頃，佔地面積最高，可能對環境的影響首當其衝。故本研究以編定工業區作為研究對象，探討產業園區面對氣候變遷與災害衝擊時可能產生之脆弱因素與特性，並從地方政府、工業區服務中心與廠商三個層面進行整合與分析。為建構具有韌性之產業園區，透過國內外相關文獻理論與回顧，將脆弱度量化建立指標，以模糊德爾菲法（Fuzzy Delphi Method, FDM）篩選適用於園區脆弱度指標項目，再運用動態網路程序法（Dynamic Network Process, DNP）詢問專家學者對於面向、指標間的相關聯性以及2020年與2030年之權重變化。根據不同面向之脆弱度評估結果將工業區分為八種類型，並研擬不同類別的產業園區災害管理調適策略，包括地方政府、工業區服務中心與廠商不同管理單位之建議，作為園區因應災害下之防救災體系應變機制與風險管理的參考，實現土地利用與產業永續發展之目標。

關鍵字

產業園區脆弱度；調適策略；模糊德爾菲法；動態網路程序法

並列摘要

Affected by the extreme climate, natural disasters such as typhoons, earthquakes, floods, and droughts may increase the scale of disasters and seriously affect environment safety and economic development losses. The industrial parks are composed of enterprises and manufacturers of different scales. The interdependence of internal manufacturers, industrial clusters, and production chain has increased the impact of disasters. The vulnerability of different industrial parks determines the potential hazard and expected consequences of the whole region. The vulnerability assessment determines the possible vulnerability factors and potential risks of the industrial park. According to statistics from the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the total area of the industrial park reported by the Central Ministry’s club is 18,745 hectares, while the area of the projected industrial sites under the Industrial Development Bureau is 11,539 hectares, the largest area, May be the first to bear the brunt of the environmental impact. Therefore, this research will take the projected industrial sites as the research object, discuss the vulnerable factors and characteristics that may occur in the industrial parks in the face of climate change and disaster impact, and integrate and analyze from the three levels of municipal government, industrial park service center and manufacturers. In order to build a resilient industrial park, through relevant literature review, the vulnerability evaluation indicators were selected. This research uses the Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM) to filter the indicators that are suitable for the vulnerability of the park, and Dynamic Network Process (DNP) expert panel is utilized for the correlation between clusters and indicators, as well as the weight changes between 2020 and 2030. According to the results of different clusters of vulnerability assessment, the industrial parks are divided into eight types. According to different types, related industrial park disaster prevention management and adaptive strategies are proposed. Based on these strategies, this study will give municipal governments, industrial park service centers and manufacturers' respective recommendations. This study provides relevant suggestions on the adaptive strategies of disaster prevention in industrial parks of different management departments, which serve as a reference for the response mechanism and risk management of disaster management system of industrial parks to achieve the goal of sustainable development of land use and industry.