俄羅斯股市的內、外部影響因素與其市場特質研究

股票市場瞬息萬變，在資訊發達的現代社會更是如此。不僅國家內部的政策、政經情況或天災；就連國際局勢變遷、系統性風險都可能以不同形式和藉由不同媒介直接或間接影響股市，使其產生劇烈震盪，更可能影響投資人權益，因此對於不同重大類型事件在股市中的反應，投資人必須有初步掌握。股價產生變化的因素不少，但是有幾項為公認的必要觀察指標，本文將以俄羅斯股市相關之基本面、產業面和其獨特發展背景、特殊國內或全球事件進行分析。透析指標事件擁有之意義及屬性，再將之與具有代表全體股市的股價指數進行對照，裨益投資人在參與俄羅斯股市的同時也能注意危機的可能訊號並提防產生重大損失的機會。文中首先將對俄羅斯股市發展做初步簡介，從蘇聯解體後正式成立、服務內容的擴增、金融商品拓展到後期政府為穩定市場之政策與作為、股市主要的交易規則等，皆為本文股市初探內容。其次，分別詳述分析與俄羅斯最密切之能源表現、匯率表現、政局氛圍與特質、尤科斯案、新冠肺炎、出口貿易順差、經濟轉型的改變、克里米亞危機等，影響股價變化的內外部因素。藉由大範圍完整地不同內外影響因素檢視，最後於結論統一歸納出俄羅斯股市之優缺點和特色，期盼從不同角度、規模能夠獲得嶄新的思考與認知。

關鍵字

俄羅斯股市；能源；盧布；尤科斯案；克里米亞危機；經濟轉型

並列摘要

The stock market is sensitive and very efficient, especially today with advanced information. There are many reasons that can affect the stock market. National policies, natural disasters, international situations, and systemic risks may directly or indirectly impact the stock market, causing violent volatility in the market, and investors may suffer heavy losses. Investors should thoroughly understand and master the reactions of different major types of events in the stock market. Despite the fact that stock prices are ever-changing, there are still particularly influential factors. The article chooses international trade, industry, political events, and global events as a comparison with the performance of the stock market for analyzing the events impact on the market from important internal and external factors. Before observing the trend of the stock market, the research project will be analyzed for the purpose of having a clear understanding of the subject and background. After analyzing the significance of the incident, the point will focus on the stock price index with changes, magnitudes, and characteristics. The indication we get from above will help investors pay attention to possible crises when investing in the Russian stock market, so as to prevent major losses. The article covers several aspects, firstly, including the initial development of the Russian stock market, the expansion of service content, the expansion of financial products to the later government’s policies and actions for stabilizing the market. Then, the other parts consist of the study of stock market changes with internal and external factors. The observations in each chapter will be summarized as the reaction of the Russian stock market to these factors, the all contenents try to provide a new way of thinking from multiple aspects and perspectives.