大陸與台灣退休金財務危機之解決方案分析：借鏡亞太地區年金制度改革與基金管理投資經驗

亞太地區的人口老化速度是世界最快的，然而全球人口結構已經呈現少子化的趨勢，導致公共年金制度收支失衡。再加上疫情增加了徵收繳費、投資績效等方面的困難，可能造成提前基金結餘耗盡的年限，根據精算報告的推估，臺灣勞保和大陸城鎮職工基本養老保險基金分別將於2026、2035年破產。相比而言，日本厚生年金和韓國國民年金的財務更為穩健，甚至日本儲備基金GPIF能保障未來100內公共老年年金的足額給付。本研究透過四個地區退休金制度和基金管理的比較分析，希望在年金制度與基金管理的改革上彼此借鏡，研究結果發現大陸和臺灣可以借鑑日本的解散制度、通算機制與及時徵繳的做法，也可效仿韓國薪資遞減制度以及多元管道宣傳國民年金的做法。此外，在制度面上，日本實行的非典型員工擴面政策與韓國漸進退休政策、延後請領等措施也非常值得大陸學習。而日本和大陸合併職業年金與公共年金，設立儲備基金等做法應能幫助臺灣勞保解決財務危機。在基金的管理上，勞保和大陸城鎮職工基本養老保險基金的收益率4%-5%都相對較低，未來較無法對抗長壽風險與通膨風險。而截至2020年，韓國國民年金收益率高達6.27%，應可借鏡韓國市場化、組織結構、責任投資的資訊收集和披露、監督等更完善的制度經驗。此外，本研究也發現日本GPIF、大陸社保基金都具有流動性低、風險承受能力高的特點，長期收益率高於其公共年金，但大陸社保基金的財務可持續性不如日本，而GPIF在資產配置、資訊收集和經理人評選機制等也值得大陸社保基金參考。

關鍵字

人口老化；年金改革；儲備基金；財務危機

並列摘要

The population in the Asia-Pacific region is aging at the fastest rate in the world, yet the global demographic structure is already showing a trend of fewer children, leading to an imbalance in public annuity payments and revenues. In addition, the epidemic has increased the difficulties in collection and investment, which may advance the year when the fund balance is depleted. According to the actuarial estimation, the Taiwan Labor Insurance and the Mainland Urban Workers' Basic Pension Insurance Funds will go bankrupt in 2026 and 2035 respectively. In contrast, Japan's Health and Welfare Pension Fund and Korea's National Pension Fund are more financially sound, and even Japan's reserve fund GPIF can guarantee full payment of public old-age pensions in the next 100 years. Through the comparative analysis of the four systems and fund management, this article finds that, in terms of future pension reform, both China and Taiwan can learn from Japan's dissolution system, pass-through mechanism, and timely levies, and can also follow Korea's practice of salary progression system and various channels to promote the national pension. On the other hand, Japan's atypical employee expansion policy and Korea's progressive retirement policy and delayed claiming measures are worth learning for China. In addition, measures such as the consolidation of public pensions for various occupations and the establishment of a reserve fund in Japan and China can help Taiwan's labor insurance to solve its financial crisis. In terms of the management of public funds, both the Labor Insurance and the Mainland's Basic Pension Insurance Fund for Urban Workers have a return of 4%-5%, which has the risk of devaluation when return below the consumer price index, while Korea's national pension has a return of 6.27% as of 2020, which is due to the better marketization, organizational structure, information collection and disclosure of liability investment, and supervision in Korea. In addition, this paper also finds that Japanese GPIF and mainland social security funds have the characteristics of low liquidity and high risk tolerance, and their long-term returns are higher than their public annuities, but the financial sustainability of social security funds is not as good as that of Japan, and GPIF is worthy of reference for mainland social security funds in terms of asset allocation, information collection and manager selection mechanism.