地方選舉對房市之影響

台灣作為一個民主的國家，選民的支持度往往都是執政者非常注重的點，而選民中有一定比例為擁屋者，因此每當選舉到來執政者或是候選人都會提出利多的房市政策以獲得擁屋者的支持，除此之外，選舉作為一個重大事件，其結果的不同可能伴隨著政策與制度方面的重大變化，不論是金融市場或是不動產市場都會產生影響。本研究首先針對2018年九合一地方縣市長選舉，針對六都直轄市前後一年的房市交易資料中的房價與流通天數變化驗證是否存在政治景氣循環理論。實證結果發現，台北市在房價與流通天數上皆符合政治景氣循環理論，但僅有房價在統計上顯著。為更進一步觀察2018年選舉中選舉不確定性較高的選區在選後住宅價格變化是否高於選舉不確定性較低的選區，採用差異中差異法，將選前民調差距小與政黨輪替的情況作為選舉不確定性較高的選舉，與其他地區做分析。實證結果發現，台中市作為選前民調接近的不可預期政黨輪替選舉具有較高的不確定性，因此相較於不確定性較低得選舉在選後住宅價格成長與流通天數減少幅度較大，符合不確定資訊假說中所謂不確定消失後，市場會有正向報酬率，分量回歸結果進一步看出台中市在低價位與中低價位房屋相較低不確定性地區變化程度較大，流通天數則是在高價位房屋變化程度較大。

關鍵字

地方選舉；不動產市場；差異中差異法；傾向分數配對；分量回歸

並列摘要

In Taiwan, as a democratic country, voter support is often a key concern for those in power, and a certain percentage of voters are homeowners, so every time an election comes around, either the ruler or the candidate will propose favorable housing policies to gain the support of homeowners. Both financial and real estate markets will be affected. First, I examine whether there is a political cycle theory for the local mayoral election in 2018 by examining the changes in housing prices and days on market before and after the year of housing transactions. The results showed that both housing prices and days on market in Taipei City were consistent with the political cycle theory, but only housing prices were statistically significant. To further observe whether the post-election changes in housing prices in constituencies with higher electoral uncertainty in the 2018 election were higher than those with lower electoral uncertainty, the difference-in-difference method was used to analyze the pre-election polls with small disparities and the change of political parties as elections with higher electoral uncertainty, compared to other districts. The empirical results show that Taichung City has a higher degree of uncertainty as an unpredictable election with close pre-election polls and party alternation, and therefore has a greater increase in residential price growth and a greater decrease in days on market after the election than a less uncertain election. The results of the quantile regression further show that Taichung City has experienced a greater degree of change and that the change is not significant across all price of houses, mainly in the lower and lower-middle price ranges.