以責任分擔的公平原則評析巴黎協定的全球氣候承諾

2015年巴黎協定的通過是國際氣候合作的重大突破。然而，協定給予各國對於減緩程度的自由裁量權卻也引起了責任分擔的公平性疑慮，同時也增加了各國作出進一步的減量承諾的合作障礙。本論文主要利用主成份分析和集群分析方法，以過去氣候談判中有關公平原則的基本主張—責任、能力、平等和發展權—為分類依據，依減緩義務程度將國家重新分群，以此作為評估各國國家自主減量貢獻的基準。接著，再利用複迴歸分析方法檢驗公平性指標對於各國減緩目標的影響，從而解析當前世界各國對於巴黎協定的合作態度。本研究希望能為解決巴黎協定目標與現實排放之間的差距提供一個初步的解決方向，進而為國際氣候治理機制奠定良好的合作環境。

關鍵字

巴黎協定；公平原則；國家自主減量貢獻；氣候變化；國際合作；責任分擔

並列摘要

The adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 was a significant breakthrough in the global climate governance regime. However, the historic achievement of the negotiations came at the price of national discretion in determining the emission reduction levels, which raised fairness concerns in burden-sharing and became an obstacle for further commitments. The main purpose of the study was to include four fundamental propositions related to the equity principles in the international climate negotiations—responsibility, capacity, equality, and right to development—as the references for assessing countries’ mitigation pledges from the nationally determined contributions. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis were employed to deconstruct the existing country group classifications and to re-classify countries to implement equivalent obligations. Subsequently, multiple regression analysis was performed to examine the influence of equity indicators on each country’s climate targets, thereby analyzing the attitude of countries around the world toward compliance with the Paris Agreement. This study was intended to propose a preliminary method to bridge the gap between the current emission levels and the permissible levels to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goals and to provide a favorable environment for international cooperation on climate change.