住宅社區大樓價格離散之分析─兼論買貴買便宜與價格離散關係

受限於房地產之高異質性，對於房地產市場的價格分散狀況的討論一向多集中在消費者的搜尋狀況，而對於房地產特徵與價格分散的討論則較為少見。然而，若房地產趨於相同產品，倘若其仍有較大的價格離散程度，那麼該房地產具有何種特徵及其發生機率為何？這兩個問題是本文所要分析探討的。在資料處理上，本研究先將房地產交易實例對應至社區，進行產品品質控制後，再以社區為標的計算變異係數並依照大小進行分組；在資料分析上，採用多項羅吉特迴歸分析(Multiple Logit Regression)，分析何種社區特徵較容易有價格離散程度大之現象。本研究發現價位水準越高或者是政府機關所建之社區越不容易有較大的價格離散；相對地，價位水準越低、屋齡越大或者產品坐落在規劃為超過50坪之社區較容易有價格離散大之趨勢。價格離散程度大之原因可能源自缺乏調整、無法調整的特徵以及個人議價能力所致；本研究盡力調整後，因此認為個人議價能力影響價格離散程度較大，隱含買貴買便宜之可能性較高，故以好時價之估值為基準，區分價格為買貴與買便宜並討論與價格離散之關係。本研究發現，較大的價格離散之社區有32.8%與買貴買便宜情形有關，而較小價格離散程度的社區則有70%為既不買貴亦不買便宜，可見價格離散程度大小與買貴或者買便宜的關聯性。本文研究提出上述成果以期予以消費者能有更多的資訊作為決策參考，並使房地產研究更趨多元。

關鍵字

住宅社區；價格離散；多項羅吉特迴歸；買貴買便宜

並列摘要

When it comes to the price dispersion of real estate, most discussions, limited by the high heterogeneity of real estate, focused only on the process during which consumers hunt houses. Few paid attention to the relationship between the features of the real estate itself and its price dispersion. What if real estate is classified into the same product and a high level of price dispersion still occurs? The features of the real estate and the probability of the occurrence are what this study is devoted to investigating. In dealing with records, this study will firstly link the transaction cases to the communities to which they belong, and then, after controlling the quality of the products, group them according to numerical value of variable coefficient that objected by communities. Multiple Logit Regression will be applied in analyzing the data to identify which characteristic of communities tends to lead to high degree of price dispersion. This study reveals the fact that the degree of price dispersion is small if an estate have a higher price level or it was built by the government. By contrast, if the estate is an aged construction, has a lower price level, or is located in the community planned to be 50 pyeongs or above, the extent of price dispersion is large. The degree of dispersion might result from the absence of adjustments, unchangeable features, and personal negotiation skills. With adjustments made as many as possible, personal negotiation skills are considered to be the key factor that affects the price dispersion and makes a transaction at a reasonable price. With Houseplus evaluation as the standard to estimate the transaction price and discuss its relation to the price dispersion, this study has observed that in communities with a high degree of price dispersion occurs 32.8% of the transactions at an unreasonable price, and that in those with a low degree of price dispersion occurs 70% of the transactions at a price unrelated to reasonability. The percentages clearly indicate the connection of unreasonable prices to price dispersion—combining which with the features pointed out aforesaid, this study was carried out in the hope of providing a useful reference for consumers on the one hand and an alternative perspective on the study of real estate on the other hand.