建立氣候變遷對空氣品質及涵容能力衝擊評估與預警機制

The Development of Climate Change Impacts Assessment on Air Quality Sustainability Warming System

魏名材(Ming-Cai Wei)

指導教授 ： 曾昭衡

國立臺北科技大學/工程學院/環境規劃與管理研究所/碩士(2007年)

https://doi.org/10.6841/NTUT.2007.00003

摘要

本研究以空品統計模式發展「氣候變遷對空氣品質衝擊評估模式」，模擬台灣地區歷史空氣品質後，由氣候變遷模式等及預設情境等資料，將未來溫度、雨量、風速(氣候因素)及排放量(人為因素)代入模式，即可推估未來的空氣品質及空氣涵容能力。已完成北部空品區一般自動測站歷年(1998年—2004年)的空氣品質CO、PM10、SO2、NOx、O3、NMHC濃度受氣候(溫度、雨量、風速)影響之分析，並據以探討未來氣候變遷所引起的空氣品質及大氣涵容能力改變。在空氣污染物排放量固定不變時的情形下，未來北部空品區大氣涵容能力大部分都會改善，其平均變化幅度在0%~6%之內，變化幅度最大不會超過15%。值得注意的是：即使大範圍地區(北部空品區)的空氣品質變好，局部地區(縣市)的空氣品質在特定時期、特定季節，特定污染物濃度仍有可能增加。
以此氣候變遷衝擊評估模式為根基，建立長期空氣涵容能力永續性預警機制。預警指標：不符合國家空氣品質標準的站日數機率(空氣品質不良率)。已依符合空氣品質標準與否之判定方法建立長期預警門檻：不良率大於2.2%，代表每年第八高值將會超過國家空氣品質標準。當指標值接近此預警門檻時，必須啟動密集的監測，分析濃度將頻率超出門檻的地點、污染物、何時發生顯著變化、變化程度為何，及針對上述的分析結果修正現行的空氣品質管理策略以為因應。

關鍵字

空氣品質 ； 氣候變遷 ； 空氣資源管理 ； 大氣涵容能力 ； 氣候變遷對空氣品質衝擊

並列摘要

The Development of Climate Change Impacts on Air Quality Sustainability Warming System.The model of Climate Change Impacts on Air Quality was developed to predict the future air quality and carrying capacity of CO、PM10、SO2、NOx、O3、NMHC by emission and future climate data (temperature, rainfall and wind speed). Results show that the carrying capacity of most air pollutants will be improved by 0%~6%, with maximum changes less than 15%.
Based on this Climate Change Impacts on Air Quality Model, an Air Quality Sustainability Warming System was developed with concentration-emission ratios and concentration probability. Long-term warming thresholds was set as the non-attainment probability is greater than 2.2%, which means the 8th-high concentration will excess the National Ambient Air Quality Standard. When a Long-term warming is issued, high-frequent monitoring system should be initiated to identify the location, pollutant, time, and degree of significant air quality changes, in order to implement the related air quality control strategy.

並列關鍵字

Air Quality ； Climate Change ； Climate Change Impacts on Air Quality Model ； Air Quality Sustainability Warming System ； Air Resource Management

參考文獻

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