應用博奕商品於巨型天災災後救助之研究

災害對策其主要出發點皆以保全人民生命為重。近年來，災前減災與緊急應變的策略組合，雖可有效承受一般性災害；惟近年來氣候變遷的影響下，部份災害事件其觀測規模，超越風險管理所承受之標準，損失情況亦造成無可避免的衝擊。為使災害損失負擔降低，政府在策略上從以往的自行吸收損失，逐漸開始透過各項方法，以「分攤」方式將巨額損失風險轉至一般市場。有鑑於2011年東日本大地震，日本政府以商品方式開闢災後財源籌資策略，驅使本論文就公營博奕商品應用在災後復原重建初期，社會救助階段之探討；而針對我國彩券業務於巨型災害規模的影響，並以2009年莫拉克風災事件為例，進行「重建彩券」的效益推估。　　本論文提出三方面討論：首先，歸納台灣地區的巨型災害規模：透過資料佐證與歸納的方式，確定目前我國所受主要之巨型災害事件；其次，博奕商品於災害救助之應用：針對東日本大地震事件公營博奕之應用為例，並參考現有台灣彩券之營運模式，以推估「重建彩券」於災後社會救助與可行性；其三，盈餘分配的應用：以巨型災害規模為主，討論災後短時間籌資資金策略，透過中央與地方政府的角度做不同面相的應用分析，對於災後緊急社會福利救助財源部份有一定的紓解。　　綜觀整體規模而言，災害管理策略的使用不僅以單一方法進行即可達到完善，本論文特以災後復原重建階段應用，輔助災前預防與緊急應變對策，並藉由推估將策略實務化。

關鍵字

巨型災害；風險分攤；災害救助；彩券

並列摘要

The policies of disaster management always aim at the protection of human lives first. In another perspective, the losses of properties have to be reduced almost as important as well. The losses are sustainable under normal magnitude due to progresses of mitigation and response to disasters. However, some catastrophes in recent years beyond engineering designs have brought serious damages to Taiwan society. The losses due to the catastrophes were so huge that an extra financial support should be taken into consideration. Instead of the traditional policies of disaster management of which the losses are undertaken by all tax payers, sharing the part of losses to investment market is currently adopted in the design of financial products. There are well established examples in Japan, especially for the recent event of the east Japan earthquake 2011, to demonstrate the successful financial aids by government published lottery. This study proposes a plan of an after-catastrophe-lottery for the social assistance in the beginning stage of recovery. The potential cost and benefit are analyzed under the estimated amount of losses referring to the event of Morakt in 2009. 　　Three issues are explored in this study: First of all, the events related to catastrophes in Taiwan are generated. Through data collection and paper review, the magnitude of catastrophes are referred and used as an criteria to summarize the events in Taiwan. Under this criteria, typhoon Morakt are taken as an example to define the magnitude of the catastrophe. The amount of losses from typhoon Morakt is therefore used as reference to quantify the necessary financial aid. Secondly, lottery products are proposed to social assistance after catastrophes. Due to the huge amount of losses in a catastrophe, the lottery product is one of the possible ways to obtain necessary financial aids. The cases in Japan and Taiwan are discussed to evaluate the appropriateness of a lottery product published specifically for the purpose of social assistance after a catastrophe. The allocations of benefit form the lottery are examined as the third issue. A social assistance was needed as soon as possible in the duration after response and in the beginning of recovery to a disaster. In addition, the raising funds for social assistance by lottery should be allocated under both conditions of equality and losses-depended. It is then discussed from the perspectives of central or local governments in this study. 　　This study estimates the possible figures of lottery product to provide a realization of the strategy of disaster management. Though the lottery product achieves the purpose of quick and effective for fund raising, it is not limited due to the impact of catastrophe is so significant that collective methods should be taken into account.

並列關鍵字

Catastrophes ； Risk Sharing ； Social Assistance ； Lottery

參考文獻

[56] 李世昌（2009），運動彩劵購買與再購行為實證，輔仁大學體育學刊，第8期，第36-62頁。

[61] 怡安班陶氐保險經紀人股份有限公司（2002），災害保險制度之建立，行政院金融監督管理委員會保險局。

[119] 樊沁萍、陳碧綉、陳竽蓁（2009），災害保險需求地區性差異之實驗研究，台灣經濟學會2009年會，2009年12月，台北。

[2] Garrett, T. A., An International Comparison and Analysis of Lotteries and The Distribution of Lottery Expenditures. , International Review of Applied Economics. Vol. 15, No. 2, pp.213-227, 2001.

[3] Gary S. Becker, A Theory of Social Interactions, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 82, No. 6 , pp.1063-1093, 1974.

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應用博奕商品於巨型天災災後救助之研究

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