臺灣在自然資源缺乏與內需市場小的劣勢下,對於國際市場的依賴程度高,自17世紀開始臺灣便成為國際商業運輸的中繼站。世界貿易的蓬勃發展,帶來臺灣的經濟起飛,因此瞭解影響國際貿易的因素及所帶來的效果顯得格外重要。又2008年底,美國所引發的金融海嘯,影響了全球的經濟發展,臺灣的出口值處於十年來最黯淡的時期。 本研究旨在以金融海嘯為例,利用複迴歸模型,探討臺灣對美國出口總額與總體經濟變數的相關性差異,希冀能提供相關單位參考的依據。 研究結果發現:在金融海嘯前,前一期臺灣工業生產指數、前一期新台幣兌美元匯率、前一期美國聯邦資金市場實際拆款利率、前一期美國工業生產指數對於臺灣對美國出口總額有顯著的影響。在金融海嘯後,前一期新台幣兌美元匯率、前一期臺灣工業生產指數、前一期中國大陸消費者物價指數年增率、前一期臺灣躉售物價指數年增率對於臺灣對美國出口總額有顯著影響。
Due to the lack of natural resources and the small domestic market, Taiwan’s economy depends highly on the international market. Since the 17th century, Taiwan has become a transport station of the international business. The booming of international trade brings in the sharp economic growth of Taiwan. It is therefore important to understand the influential factors and their impacts on Taiwan’s international trade. The financial crisis caused by the U.S. at the end of year 2008 had greatly affected the growth of world economy making Taiwan’s exportation stay at the lowest level over the past 10 years. This research uses the multiple regression model to analyze the correlation between the export amount of Taiwan to the U.S. and the macroeconomic variables before and after the 2008 financial crisis. The result of this research can provide as a useful reference to government officials and researchers. The results of this research indicate that, in the regression model before 2008 financial crisis, the first lag period of Taiwan’s industrial production index, the first lag period of exchange rate, the first lag period of federal funds rate and the first lag period of U.S.’s industrial production index are influential economic variables to the exportation amounts of Taiwan to the U.S. In the regression model after financial crisis, the first lag period of exchange rate, the first lag period of Taiwan’s industrial production index, the first lag period of China’s annual changes in customer price index, and the first lag period of Taiwan’s annual changes of wholesale price index are significant economic variables that affect the exportation amounts of Taiwan to the U.S.